Live Bloggin' the 2013 Oscars

Alright alright alright, I'm probably inappropriately excited about this evening's ceremony, but I don't care.  This is my 8th year doing this so I know what I'm doing and I'm kind of a big deal dontcha know.  Every year, I feel compelled to say this and this year is no exception: the Oscars is by no means the be all end all or authority on the perceived quality of a film or performance...it's a bunch of old dudes with their own agendas doling out handjobs in gold statue form to their friends, ok?  And we already know ahead of time that practically every moment of tonight's ceremony will be some of the most egocentric, self-important/congratulatory bullshit you will see all year.  If you didn't know better, the Academy would have you believe that the films released last year helped facilitate the end of world hunger as we know it and in its spare time, resurrected John Lennon and George Harrison from the dead to get the Beatles back together.  All that being said, I love film and some sick side of me loves all the overblown pageantry and nonsense that is the glorious Oscars telecast.  And to be fair, at the end of the day, I love film and as easy as it is to denigrate the Academy, they do actually honor some pretty excellent films (with the exception of Les Miserables).  One interesting aspect this year is that I don't have any films I'm actively rooting for or against.  Last time I did this, I was firmly in the anti-King's Speech camp, but that was mainly b/c I knew it would win and didn't deserve to.  This year, I felt the two best films that were nominated were The Master and Zero Dark Thirty and neither has a chance to really win anything they were nominated for so it doesn't matter.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that the films that probably will win, are all fine films.  So while this year's awards should be unpredictable, I don't think it'll piss me off. 

Oh and one more thing, for the past few years, I always make reference to Louis Gossett Jr classin' up the joint the way only the star of Iron Eagle can do and he has yet to make an appearance recently.  Did something happen to him?  Surely the Academy wouldn't stop inviting him would they?  Gossett!!! I'm coming for YOU.

7:09pm CST:

• OK I don't care about this red carpet nonsense, but it's on while I do some last minute prepping and I couldn't resist saying something after hearing Adele speak.  I love how this woman has this angelic voice when she's singing and when she speaks, she sounds like she should be working in an 18th century brothel in the poorer outskirts of London..."Would you like to play wit me tits?!"

• So we all know that the Oscars get boffo ratings around the world and a big part of it is the legions of women and gay men tuning in for the fashion aspect and the whole red carpet thing, so they've done this part of the broadcast A LOT and yet, it still remains some of the most awkward television around. Some of the questions these hosts asks and the befuddled responses given by the actors/actresses are gold.  "Hey Bradley Cooper, after your publicist made you endure the most awkward interview of your entire career at my hands...can you guess what's hidden in this box under this blanket?  It's our Oscar mystery!" "Ummm......"

• Seth MacFarlane as host? Sure, why not.  Could be worse (Whoopi Goldberg, the Hathaway/Franco combo), could be better (Jon Stewart, Steve Martin), but it has potential.  I'm not a huge Family Guy fan and I'm sure that MacFarlane will be largely defanged, but I'm sure he'll be able to still get some decent jabs in there.  I think he'll do solidly.  I don't think he'll be one of the best, but he won't drag it down either. 

7:56pm CST:

• There's a "theme" to the Oscars this year and it's "music in film".  Great.

• Did anyone find "We Saw Your Boobs" funny?  This opening monologue has been pretty lacking so far.

•  Now Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron dancing...because that's why we all watch the Oscars.

•  I have no idea who had this idea of the whole William Shatner time travel gimmick, but whoever it is needs to be fired, right now. 
•  I would have been completely ok with a decent monologue and some montages about how great film is and how it's helped advance the human race, I'm a sucker for montages.  Instead, we get all this singing nonsense.

•  Ok finally, an actual award.  Best Supporting Actor is a very tough race to call and I'm going with Jones, but I don't feel confident about it.  If it's not him, I think it'll be Deniro.  And just so we're clear, Philip Seymour Hoffman SHOULD win, but he won't, he's absolutely phenomenal in The Master.

• Wow, and it goes to Christoph Waltz and I'm 0 for 1.  I guess Deniro and Jones split the old guy vote.  Hard to argue with this.  Waltz was awesome, I just didn't think he'd win again so quickly, but it's nice to see the Academy acknowledging quality because Waltz is definitely worthy. 

8:15pm CST:

•  I love Paul Rudd.  I don't love Melissa McCarthy.  This intro did nothing to change my mind.  

• I hate starting off 0 for 1.  I'm angry now.  And I don't predict shorts so redemption will have to wait a few more moments.

• Andddd now 0 for 2.  Brave doesn't deserve to go under the Pixar name, very lackluster effort.  I knew this ceremony would be unpredictable, but I didn't expect to lose this category.  

• Well if that doesn't make you wanna see Les Miserables, I don't know what will.

• I kinda like the idea of combining the Best Pic montages into groups of threes (assuming they do the rest of the night).  You get the same effect and it's much more efficient.

•  Most of the main actors from The Avengers to present an award with the exception of Thor.  What, Chris Hemsworth was just too busy to make an appearance?

• And I finally get one right.  Claudio Miranda wins Cinematography for Life of Pi as I'm now 1 for 3.  Poor Roger Deakins, who is apparently now the Susan Lucci of the Oscars...now 0 for 9.  

• And Life of Pi wins for Visual Effects as I'm now 2 for 4.  The good news is my prediction that the love for the technical merits of Life of Pi runs deep seems to be coming true which unfortunately has no bearing on how it'll fare in the major categories and the bad news is, I've already missed two.  F*!k!!!

8:31pm CST:

• Those poor Visual Effects nerds getting cut off was mildly funny and all, but if you wanna see awesome, the Independent Spirit Awards kind of won that category last night as Derek Connolly, writer and director of Safety Not Guaranteed, went up to accept his award while clearly drunk and rambled on for five whole minutes only to have Bryan Cranston eventually go on stage and poor him a shot of Jameson.  THAT is how you boot someone off stage.

• And when in doubt about Costume Design, go with the big period piece.  And if it stars Keira Knightley, that's just a bonus to help lock it in.  I feared that Les Miserables may have an outside shot here and in other similar categories, but I don't think there's tremendous amounts of support for that film.  Now 3 for 5.

• So of course right after I say that, Les Miserables takes it home for Makeup and Hairstyling, I've righted the ship for now at 4 for 6.  Why do makeup and hairstyling people have the ability to win actual awards for their work on others, but they themselves look like they just rolled out of bed after drinking for 12 hours straight?

• A Bond montage...meh.  Never been a huge fan.  I watched them growing up because my dad was a fan, but I haven't even seen the new ones with Daniel Craig so this is just a waste of time to me. 

 8:38pm CST:

•  And the best speech of the night so far comes from the Best Live Action Short guy, go figure.

•  Since this seems to be a dead spot in the telecast, just for the record, I'm going to rank all nine films that were nominated for Best Picture in order of ones I most liked to least liked: Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour, Life of Pi, Les Miserables.  There, that was fun.

• And Best Documentary was one of the few locks of the night as Searching for Sugar Man takes it down.  Now 5 for 7.

9:23pm CST:

• Foreign Language film may have been the biggest lock in that category since Pan's Labyrinth, 6 for 8. Don't let Michael Haneke fool you with his polite disposition, he hates all of you and all of humanity.

• Kind of weird that we live in a world in which Chicago won 6 Oscars.  Or maybe not, Titanic won 11.  Some years are just doomed.

• I won't lie, I like Jennifer Hudson.  She even sings like a sassy black woman.

• Ok, god help us all.  I guess it's not enough that Les Miserables inexplicably got nominated for 8 Oscars, but now we get a song on top of it, oh goody.

• Oh a Ted bit, no one saw that coming.  

• Ok I'm cruising now, but I don't feel good about it.  No one should be able to celebrate a win for Les Miserables, now 7 for 9.

• A tie?? Really??  Well, this is a first.  I mean, I did pick Skyfall so fuck it, I'm taking credit, I got it right.  8 for 10.

• I love seeing all these "tech people" winning awards b/c when you compare them to all the Hollywood stars gracing the stage, it's almost like..."hey guys, here's what normal people look like!" 

9:43pm CST:

• Anne Hathaway winning was one of the few "duh" awards for the evening and rightfully so.  An unfortunately very weak category this year, but she was good enough.  9 for 11.  On a hot streak after missing the first two, but don't get confused, I'm still pissed.  

• Does some of the laughter sound canned?  I mean, I know Seth MacFarlane isn't making people double over in paroxysms of laughter, but geez. That's embarrassing.

• If Argo wins for Editing, Best Picture is even more of a lock.  Yep, I'm back baby.  10 for 12.

• If they got rid of the live performances of...well any song really, I'd be totally fine with that. 

 10:09pm CST:

• Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained, and Amour. That'd make for a helluva night of movie watching.

• Production Design is a tough one.  I picked Life of Pi b/c I fully believe that the Academy is most taken with its technical merits, but it wouldn't shock me to see Les Miserables or Lincoln take it.  And there ya go, stupid Lincoln. I'm now 10 for 13.

• I've never understood why there's such widespread hatred for Kristen Stewart.  It seems especially prevalent among females.  I'm guessing it's b/c she projects this "yes, I will fuck your boyfriend/husband and I don't give a shit what you have to say about it" kinda vibe.  I love whores.

• Is it weird that I love the "In Memoriam" segment?  George A. Bowers looks like the sassiest, most no nonsense editor ever.  Mike Hopkins did sound for Transformers? Yeah, good riddance, my ears still haven't recovered.  Well, other than Tony Scott, I'd say no significant losses this year, not too shabby.  We'd have to say 2012 was a win because of that.  *sigh* I'm going to hell...

• A song by ol' Babs?!  Just what the doctor ordered.  I've been waiting on that Marvin Hamlisch tribute all goddamn night. 

10:27pm CST:

• That reference to Rex Reed reviewing Adele's performance later was the best joke MacFarlane made all night.  If you're unfamiliar, go look up Rex Reed's review of the Melissa McCarthy starring vehicle, Identity Thief. Epic.

• Did I miss something? Is Chicago considered an all-time classic Oscar winner and I'm just in the dark on this?

• Well, I was right about one thing, the love for Life of Pi, hopefully it carries over to Best Director as it takes down Score.  11 for 14.

• Another "duh" moment as Adele wins for Skyfall. Now 12 for 15. 

 10:36pm CST:

• And the mad love for the Argo train continues as it takes Adapted Screenplay.  Now 12 for 16.  Don't say I didn't warn you.  And now I'm gonna be wrong for Original Screenplay.

• Well, I guess I can take solace in the fact that for all of the ones I got wrong, I often said "well if it's not this one, it'll be THIS one", so I'm silver-medaling like a motherfucker.  Now 12 for 17 as Tarantino wins Original Screenplay.

• No one can hate on a Tarantino speech.  We all know he's been doing blow in the parking lot and just itching to get out of there so he can go to a nightclub and drink shots of tequila off of strippers' tits all night.  God bless him!

• I guess I misappropriated the love for Amour where it should have been for Django Unchained. I guess I just assumed that outside of Pulp Fiction, Tarantino hasn't gotten much Oscar love so I thought they put his films into a certain niche type of category, but apparently not.  It sucks to be wrong, but on the other hand, I consider Django to be one of the best films of the year, so it's worthy and nice to see honestly.

10:48pm CST:

• Best Director is one of the toughest categories to call.  I've gotten all my other tough categories wrong, maybe I'll actually get one right now.  And heyyyy, look at that!  Law of averages people, I was due eventually as my boy Ang Lee takes it down.  13 for 18.  

• So I was right about the love for Life of Pi and wrong about the love for Amour. That being said, let's see if Oscar has one more upset left in her as I've predicted Riva to pull the upset in the Actress category.

• Best Actress is a very strong category this year as every performance is fantastic.  I personally prefer Jennifer Lawrence and she's been the frontrunner all along, but let's see if that plays out.  Also, I watched The Impossible today and my goodness, what a harrowing film.  Naomi Watts is terrific.  And there you have it.  I was totally off on Amour, oh well, 13 for 19.  Should finish 15 for 21, bleh.

11:04pm CST:

• I will say that it's a goddamn travesty that John Hawkes wasn't even nominated for phenomenal work in The Sessions. Hugh Jackman, are you fucking serious?  I still can't decide if Joaquin Phoenix gave a great performance, but it's certainly...something.  I'll just give it benefit of the doubt b/c I love The Master that much.  And DDL makes history, 14 for 20.

• Hey hey everybody, it's the Daniel Day-Lewis standup comedy hour, oh my goodness, my sides!

• Oh christ, here we go.  Since Michelle Obama is presenting nominees, here comes a wave of political nonsense on Facebook, thanks Academy!

• It's hard not to be happy for Ben Affleck, who has proven himself to be a truly terrific filmmaker. Not even being nominated for Director was ridiculous, but I don't even think he cares and wow, love that speech.  So humble and gracious and enthusiastic.  He's a guy that just loves movies and that's what it's all about.  Oh and 15 for 21.  Ew.

Final Thoughts:

- I feel like I say this a lot lately, but yet again, not a very good production. Seth MacFarlane was even worse than I thought he could've been.  Perhaps not his fault, but it is what it is.  Plus I've seen hosts succeed so I know it can be done.  I finished 15 for 21 which is what I did back in 2010 and about what I expected considering the unpredictability of a lot of the awards this year.  Either way, it was fun to get back in the saddle, I was rusty, so I guess I need to write more.  Toodles. 

Oscar Predictions 2013

It's been over a year, so it makes sense to post another entry now for all of you who don't actually read this blog.  I was out of commission for last year's ceremony so I'm back with a fury this year and ready to rock.  It should be a fun one as I feel like several key and not so key categories come down to at least one or two contenders, meaning a lot of categories are far from locks so it should be a fun night.  Back in good ol' 2011, I finished the night 18 of 21 on my predictions, so obviously the Academy had to step up their game as I was inching closer and closer to complete and total Oscar domination.  I'm posting my predictions now so that no one can question the legitimacy of my perfect record come Sunday:

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

- This Best Picture race has been quite interesting as early on, it seemed it was Lincoln's to lose and since Ben Affleck didn't even get nominated for Best Director, there was no way a film without even a Best Director nomination could win, but somewhere along the way, everyone remembered that they loved Argo.  Oh and then it started winning every pre-cursor imaginable and it was, bye bye Lincoln.  I really think this is one of the more secure categories to predict, if for no other reason that I can't see any of the potential "dark horses" actually winning.  Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook will all get their votes, but in the end, ol' Ben will get the last laugh and Oscar night 2013 will forever be known as "Affleck's Revenge"...and no one shall be spared.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Not terribly crazy about any of the nominees, so of the Best Picture nominees who were absent a director nomination, I'll just say that either Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty or Ben Affleck for Argo would've worked just fine for me

- Very tough race to call here as I really feel like it's Spielberg vs. Lee.  I think the love for Life of Pi runs deep and it will be rewarded as such here.  That being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Spielberg take home his third directing Oscar and for some strange reason, I have this feeling that Michael Haneke could pull a Roman Polanski circa 2003 and come out of nowhere to win Best Director.  I feel like Amour is a serious contender in a lot of categories and has a chance to win Director, Original Screenplay, Foreign Film (duh), and Actress. 

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

- Look, it's kind of unfair at this point.  Day-Lewis is a phenomenal actor and he just so happens to get the most plum roles imaginable.  Not to take anything away from him, but he's not exactly slumming it when he's getting the roles of Bill the Butcher, Daniel Plainview, or Abraham freakin' Lincoln, I mean, c'mon.  It'll be unprecedented as the Academy has never bestowed the Best Actor award to any one actor 3 times, but I think everyone agrees that Day-Lewis is worthy.  And he will, as Sean Penn, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks, and Jack Nicholson all sneer at him from their bitter corners clutching their lonely two Best Actor Oscars...Marlon Brando is passed out on a beach somewhere surrounded by candy wrappers, so he doesn't give a shit.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

- Lawrence has been considered the favorite for quite a while and rightfully so, she's an absolute dynamo, but I feel that the Best Actress Oscar is generally given to more established actresses and when it's a showdown between an old vet versus the up and comer, go with the old vet.  The Best Supporting Actress category is the one typically more willing to dole out awards to the ingenues.  Don't get me wrong, Emmanuelle Riva is phenomenal and deserves all the praise she has been getting, I just slightly prefer Lawrence's performance, but she'll get her Oscar, it's inevitable and I believe the Academy feels the same way

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

- Of the "major" categories, this may be the most competitive as each nominee has won before and it doesn't appear that anyone has established a clear cut lead.  I'm leaning Jones, but part of me has a very strong feeling that Deniro's return to legitimate acting has garnered some "awww there's our special little guy!" sentiments from Academy voters.  I think Waltz would have a better shot had he not just won 3 short years.  Hoffman absolutely deserves it as he gave one of the best performances of the year in the best film of the year, but I don't think there's much love for The Master. I'm going with Jones, but I don't feel good about it.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

- One of the surest things this year as Hathaway was easily the best part about Les Miserables.  She has been the frontrunner all along and there's no reason to believe she won't take this home on Sunday.  As I've mentioned before, the Academy has no issues with giving out this award to the young up and comers and while Hathaway isn't brand new, she's generally viewed as an actress who will be a force for a long time.  If you're looking for any upset potential, Sally Field could be that for Lincoln, but no.  It won't happen.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Michael Haneke - Amour
Who Should Win: Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

- Interesting that at one point, this was seen as Mark Boal's to lose and now he basically has no shot, which is a damn shame, but oh well.  Screenplay is also generally a category where voters use it as an opportunity to reward a film they really liked, but not enough to win Best Picture (i.e. Lost in Translation, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, etc.).  As a result, it'd be easy to think that Moonrise Kingdom could scratch that particular itch, but there seems to be hardly any support for Wes Anderson's nice little film, plus it only has one nomination, so it has no shot.  This is a two-horse race between Haneke and Tarantino.  Part of me feels that if Haneke goes on to win Best Director, then this is Tarantino's and if he doesn't, this is Haneke's.  Since I'm predicting Ang Lee to win Director, I'm going with Haneke here, but I don't feel good about it.  I truly believe that the love for Amour is very real and will prove itself to be true on Sunday, so I'm all in on that film and if I'm wrong, I'm going down with the ship.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Chris Terrio - Argo

- I feel like this is another two horse race as clearly, since it should win Best Picture, there's plenty of love for Argo so it's reasonable to think it'll win screenplay, but I think Kushner is so highly regarded and that Lincoln has the most nominations for a reason, therefore I'm going with Kushner.  If you're looking for a dark horse, Silver Linings Playbook did surprise everyone by being nominated for every single major award, so obviously the Academy was quite smitten with it and this could be the category they choose to reward it, but I'm betting against that.  SLP will shockingly go home with zilch on Oscar night.

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

- I'm betting big on the love for Life of Pi as I've predicted it to be the big winner with 5 followed by Lincoln, Amour, and *shudder* Les Miserables with 3 each.  Saying out loud that Life of Pi will be the biggest winner on Oscar night just doesn't seem accurate, but when I break down each race and take into the account the overall parity of this year's field, I guess that's what the results might just bear out.   

Top Ten of 2009

I'm gonna just go ahead and say that the reason this is up so unbelievably past the point of being relevant is because it's a reflection of how I felt about the overall quality of 2009's batch of films. Yeah ok, that works for me. The bizarre thing is I had a whopping total of 30, that's right THIRTY, films that I rated to be 3.5 stars or better. For those keeping score at home, that's the highest number since 2002. So what this means is, the mid-2000s were a very cynical time for me and 2009 represented a sort of renewed optimism for not just film, but life overall. Um, no. Ok ok, so it means that 2009 was a phenomenal year for film and I couldn't post this sooner because it would be irresponsible of me to try and evaluate such greatness right away. Nope again. The correct answer is, who the fuck knows. I call 'em as I see 'em and at the end when looking back, I can tell you how I felt the overall quality was and I maintain that it was down dammit. In yet another exciting twist, for the previous year of our lord 2008, I had only 19 films rated 3.5 stars or higher, BUT of those films, we got 2, possibly 3 bona fide classic films in The Dark Knight and Synecdoche, NY (The Wrestler is the third "potential" classic) and maybe that's why I view 2008 in a more favorable light. Maybe I'm just a top-heavy kinda guy. Let's get this over with.

10) Star Trek - Leave it to J.J. Abrams to deliver a summer blockbuster in the way the good lord intended. I suppose it's semi-relevant that I've never seen a single episode of Star Trek or any of the movies because I like to get laid and can only take so much big ships fighting with lasers in space shit in the span of one lifetime. I'm not entirely sure how this reinvention came across to the die-hards, but for a noob like me, I was exceedingly pleased with how much fucking FUN this film was. Chris Pine made for a charismatic, captivating lead and I'll be damned if Star Trek wasn't the best time I had at the ol' picture show all year.

9) A Single Man - Now that we can call Colin Firth an "Oscar winner" for his work in the tremendously overrated A King's Speech, you might want to hold back on the venom until you've seen his work in A Single Man because then you can go, "Oh THAT'S why it's okay he won!". Not exactly feel-great-about-life material here, but a very well-choreographed and nuanced character study of a man struggling to cope after a painful loss. Very moving stuff.

8) 500 Days of Summer - Stylistic feature film debut for the man responsible for the fate of my beloved Spider-Man series, Marc Webb. At times, it can be a little too cutesy for its own good, but overall, it hits the nail on the head as a compelling study of a failed relationship. Plus, haven't we ALL known that girl.

7) District 9 - So of the 4 films I've listed so far, all but one are feature film debuts for their respective directors, the lone exception being J.J. Abrams and even then, Star Trek was his second film, so maybe 2009 was the year of the promising neophyte. Good job, 2009, you're not so worthless after all. Oh yeah, so District 9 took me by surprise. One of the things that jumped out at me was how the film used a pretty much thoroughly unlikeable protagonist and yet, still made us give a shit. See, world? You CAN have a film set in the future with weird aliens and spaceships and all that other shit you like and not have it be unbelievably stupid! Amazing.

6) Watchmen - I'll admit I was never worried that Zack Snyder could capture the aesthetic of Alan Moore's groundbreaking graphic novel, but pardon me if the director of 300 wasn't exactly a guy I felt confident in grasping the thematic depth of a dense piece of work like Watchmen. Thankfully, he succeeded marvelously and frankly, it was kind of fun watching people go into this film like it was yet another run-of-the-mill superhero film only to walk out going, "What the fuck was that? Gimme my money back." The de-mythologizing of the superhero has never been so fascinating.

5) Moon - Sam Rockwell remains one of his generation's most underrated actors for whatever reason. He's an absolute chameleon and Moon is no exception as he has to play multiple clones of himself. Questions of identity and morality abound in yet another feature debut on this list. Not that I'm putting this in the class of a film like 2001 at all, but echos of it were certainly there.

4) A Serious Man - I'm starting to think that the Coen brothers simply have a pipeline to my soul and I just need to learn to live with it. In a darkly comic study of one man's quest to find the meaning of life and the impact of religion on his own existence, the Coens give us one of their least accessible films (although I'm just happy to live in a world that a directing/writing/producing team as brilliant as the Coens actually somewhat get the recognition they deserve), but yet, one of their more profound, thought provoking ones. But ain't that how it always goes?

3) The Hurt Locker - Taut, intense and brutal. I'm not big on war films, not because they all by and large have the same goal (war is hell, duh), but because they all tend to go about them in similar ways (seriously, we don't need any more films about how the Vietnam war was fucked up). The Hurt Locker succeeds in that it takes overall familiar subject matter and finds a way to make it engaging and thought provoking in a way that doesn't just beat the audience to death with some form of battle sensory overload. Oh and Jeremy Renner, where the fuck have you been hiding?

2) Two Lovers - If Joaquin Phoenix had actually quit acting after this, he could have done a whole fuck of a lot worse. Not only is he great, but the entire cast is in James Gray's expedition into the fucked up male psyche. Devastating on multiple levels and brutally honest. A film that deals with human emotions in a way that it's impossible for you to watch and not see some of yourself in some way, shape or form through the characters. Why do we love who we love or want who we want? Two Lovers explores this in a manner armed with a thesis that suggests there is no formula or logic to it. Maybe this one should have been number one.

1) Up in the Air - When I first saw this, I assumed it was your standard "no man is an island" claptrap bullshit and therefore, I spent 30 of the last 45 minutes just kind of rolling my eyes waiting for the inevitable conclusion until it threw me a curveball and made me realize that this film had higher goals than I originally thought. That's what I get for thinking I'm so smart. While superbly written and acted, I thought we were on familiar ground, but the mere fact that this film had the courage to actually say that, yes things can change but you still have to deal with the life you've lived and lie in the bed you made (plus subsequent viewings), really threw me for a loop and surprised me, in a refreshing way. While Up in the Air would normally be a standard top ten film in any other year as opposed to number one doesn't diminish that it's still a terrific piece of work.

Runners-Up: Inglourious Basterds, Drag Me to Hell, Up, World's Greatest Dad, Red Cliff, The Road, The White Ribbon

Individual Awards:
Best Actor: Colin Firth - A Single Man: This was tough. Jeff Bridges was absolutely phenomenal in Crazy Heart and may have single-handedly elevated that film above mediocrity, but Firth WAS this film. He embodied everything and kept everything remarkably grounded and nuanced and heartbreaking.
Runners-Up: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart, George Clooney - Up in the Air, Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker, Matt Damon - The Informant!, Tom Hardy - Bronson

Best Actress: Tilda Swinton - Julia: If you want an example of an actor/actress baring it ALL (literally and figuratively), look no further. While I'm not the most easily swayed when it comes to histrionic, bombastic performances, Swinton takes it to another level and deserves recognition.
Runners-Up: Abbie Cornish - Bright Star, Carey Mulligan - An Education, Helen Mirren - The Last Station, Gabourey Sidibe - Precious, Sasha Grey - The Girlfriend Experience

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz - Inglourious Basterds: Menacing, yet innocent. Give Tarantino credit, he knows how to wring tension out of any scene and he finds the right guys to do it. Waltz is phenomenal in every scene he's in and projects a grave threat that belies his diminutive stature.
Runners-Up: Peter Capaldi - In the Loop, Woody Harrelson - The Messenger, Tsutomu Yamazaki - Departures, Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones, Alfred Molina - An Education

Best Supporting Actress: Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air: Displaying a potent combination of precociousness and vulnerability, Kendrick appears at first sight like your typical ingenue, but the more you watch her, especially in this role, you get the sense that there's more sincerity and that she's here to stay.
Runners-Up: Patricia Clarkson - Whatever Works, Blanca Portillo - Broken Embraces, Samantha Morton - The Messenger, Imelda Staunton - Taking Woodstock

Other Miscellaneous Awards (Or Lack Thereof):
Worst Film of the Year: Going through the list of films I watched from 2009, I found very few candidates for such a prestigious honor and I'm beginning to now think that I really must have just shut it down in 2009. I clearly wasn't on point and bringing my A game, so I apologize retroactively for how I digested that year's crop of films. Unacceptable. BUTTTTT...the good news is I still was able to sift through all the stuff I found to be acceptable or even GOOD and stumbled upon this little gem. It made a lot of money and even got nominated *shudder* for awards. I'm speaking of course about the John Lee Hancock-directed masterpiece, The Blind Side. Let's just throw away the notion that I can't stand these heartfelt sports-based movies for the most part, let's just forget we know that fact. Then all you're left with is a movie that is cheesy and maudlin and thoroughly unbelievable and atrocious in every regard. I mean, Michael Oher, the guy who this movie is all about, doesn't even endorse the film. Of course, if someone made a film that made me appear completely inept in almost every conceivable fashion including being borderline retarded, I probably would disown it too. The fact that this gobbled up tons of cash at the box office and has been well represented during awards season is all the evidence you need to understand what state our nation is in.

Most Underrated/Underappreciated Film of the Year:
It's always nice to get pleasant surprises from the comedy genre seeing as how it's such barren wasteland full of disappointments and unfulfilled potential. I really enjoyed the dark, but hilarious humor courtesy of Observe and Report and World's Greatest Dad. Gentlemen Broncos got lambasted by critics, but I found that this film had echos of Napoleon Dynamite (which I happen to consider a good thing) and breezed by with frequent laughs. All three of these were pretty much overlooked and disregarded, but for me, they like movie rental ninjas...popping up out of nowhere to give me a lovely evening unexpectedly. I went on a big Steven Soderbergh kick that year and found The Girlfriend Experience to be compelling and moving in its own strange way. However, the number one most underrated/underappreciated film of the year I saw was John Woo's sprawling war epic, Red Cliff. Although the action/narrative momentum slows down in the second half (the only thing that kept me from giving this the year's only 4 star rating), Red Cliff is by and large a hugely entertaining piece of Chinese filmmaking. Epic, dramatic, compelling...I'm amazed this film did not catch on. I'll just assume it's because most Americans are cultural elitists who are subtitle-phobic. Yeah, that sounds about right.

The Proof That Seeing Something Twice Is Sometimes Necessary Award:
Inglourious Basterds. I'm not a Quentin Tarantino apologist or superfan, but I was pretty psyched for this one. The first time through, I thought it to be an ambitious, but unfortunately tedious slog of a movie. I thought it had individual moments/performances that were excellent (i.e. the opening scene and Christopher Waltz), but had wayyyyy too many dead spots and pointless character interactions (kinda like 75% of Death Proof). I decided to give it a second try because too many I respect found it to be one of the best of the year and I felt like it had the elements to succeed, it just never came together. The next time around, I found everything to be much more intense and some of what I had previously thought to be "pointless" now felt a lot more organic. I guess I was just in a stupid mood the first time.

The I'll Keep Seeing Your Stupid Movie Franchise Because I Can't Help Myself And I'm Not Proud Of It Award:
Fast and Furious.

Movie Quote Of The Year You Won't See Appearing On Good Morning America:
"I performed fellatio her." - Mike Tyson in James Toback's documentary Tyson

The Most Awesome Sam Raimi Scene That Only Sam Raimi Could Do Of The Year Award:
The gypsy fight in the car in Drag Me To Hell.

The I'm Not Embarrassed To Admit That I Got Legitimately Scared For A Good 20 Seconds Award:
Paranormal Activity.

The I Dare You Not To Get At Least A Little Choked Up Or You're A Soulless Heathen Scene Award:
The prologue to Pixar's Up. Good lord, I can't watch.



Most Disappointing Film(s) "Award":
Public Enemies and Extract. Neither were "awful" per se, but I expected much more than what I got considering the pedigree/subject matter involved.

The Embracing This Nerd Shit Has Gone Too Far Award:
Paper Heart.

The Most Fun At The Movies All Year (Star Trek notwithstanding, of course) Award:
Zombieland. (also winner of the Best Celebrity Cameo Award, but I can't have a single film win twice...that would violate the rules)

The "That's How You Do A Fuckin' Sports Movie" Award:
The Damned United.

The Most Cartoonishly Evil Character Ever Award:
Mo'Nique in Precious.

The I Just Love This Scene So I Want An Excuse To Post It Award:




The Most Disturbing/Disgusting Scene Of The Year Award:
The genital mutilation scene in Lars Von Trier's Antichrist. It's not even fucking close. Just be glad I didn't post THAT scene. It is the holidays after all, Merry Christmas!

Oscars 2011 Live Bloggin'

Gonna go ahead and get this live entry up and running. I can't believe this is my 7th year of doing this, so what does that mean? It means I'm an expert so don't question me or as Kenny Powers likes to say, "You're fuckin out! I'm fuckin in!" Also, keep in mind this is the Academy Awards. It's a bunch of rich, beautiful, obnoxiously self-important people suckin' each other off and giving out handies to whoever is within striking distance. Everyone knows this. So no need to bitch and moan about how it's all politicking and self-congratulatory bullshit and that it's not a true measure of cinematic artistry/quality, blah blah blah, no one cares. That is all a given, so save the contrived, recycled bullshit for someone who hasn't ever heard of movies or the Oscars. I do this b/c I love film and for better or worse, this is the night that celebrates American film, so since this is the 83rd edition and it's the most watched TV program in the entire world, something tells me it isn't going anywhere anytime soon, might as well soak it all in. With all that being said, let's get ready for a delightful evening of The King's Speech bashing.

7:02pm CST:

• I'm not sure how much "acting" Natalie Portman does as she constantly looks like she's about to burst into tears anyway.

• The James Franco/Anne Hathaway hosting combo is a curious choice. Franco is talented and can be very funny, I'm not really worried about him. Anna Hathaway is also talented and has a sweet sack of boobies on her, but I wonder about her comedic chops, guess we'll find out. Of course, anything is better than having to watch Wolverine prance around on stage all night randomly bursting into song or having Whoopi Goldberg host (no commentary needed on that). Then again, I'd be content having Steve Martin, Billy Crystal, or Jon Stewart host every year, how old white man of me.

• By the way, per my Oscar tradition, the Louis Gossett, Jr. watch is officially under way. I need my Gossett fix, do not let me down Oscar!

• As the countdown continues, I gotta say I'm genuinely worried about my Best Supporting Actor pick. I still think it's gonna be Bale, but I have this weird feeling that Rush is gonna sneak in and steal it. I'd be more worried if Rush had never won before, but he already nabbed Best Actor in '96, so he's not some old guy sentimental favorite that the Academy feels must pay him their due. He's a very good actor, but Bale deserves it here. Hell, he deserved it in 2001 for American Psycho, but wasn't even nominated. Yeah, fuck you Academy.

7:25pm CST:

• Hey there's Halle Berry. She's pretty hot when she's not sobbing like a brat and having a seizure onstage for winning an award she didn't deserve. Not that I'm bitter or anything.

• I'm a sucker for movie clip montages, I ain't gonna lie. By the way, just so everyone can stop all the arguing and fussing and fighting, The Social Network is the best film of the year. There, it's settled.

• That opening skit was weak. They did include a Back to the Future nod though and I'm not adverse to that. I'm not made of steel ya know.

• No way James Franco is not stoned as fuck right now.

• Holy lord, Jennifer Lawrence is hot when she's not hanging out in backwoods Arkansas fighting meth dealers and cutting hands off of dead corpses found in lakes.

• It's pretty sad that I can guess a movie based on the year alone. When they said "a classic from 1939", I immediately knew it was Gone with the Wind. Wait, that's not sad, that's just proof that I'm a movie machine.

• Haha, Tom Hanks just called Titanic a "best picture classic". Good one, Tom.

• Art Direction, nailed it. I'm 1 for 1 so far. Alice in Wonderland is a pile of dog poop, but it's hard to argue with its technical merits. That's about all Tim Burton is good for anyway.

• Ok now Cinematography. Damn, Roger Deakins gets screwed again. 1 for 2 now.
  

7:50pm CST:

• Somehow, some way, the Oscars seem even MORE epically self-important tonight. It's like their work facilitated the end of apartheid. I love movies too, but geez.

• At the rate Kirk Douglas is speaking, we'll be done sometime tomorrow afternoon. He's also speaking like the midget from Twin Peaks in Special Agent Cooper's dream. Twin Peaks reference tonight, check that right the fuck off the list!

• Hey, Best Supporting Actress is back to being one of the first awards handed out. Woohoo, know your place, ladies. I actually like all of these nominees, but Jacki Weaver is spellbinding. If you haven't seen Animal Kingdom (and you probably haven't), check it out for her performance if nothing else. Melissa Leo is frighteningly disgusting in The Fighter, good job. Oh shutup old man, get on with the award! Ok this is pretty funny, I'm not gonna lie. You won me over, Kirk, you still got it Spartacus. Alright back on track, 2 for 3 now as Leo takes it. I think Kirk Douglas just wants to hang out onstage all night.
  

• Actually, now that I think about it, it might be good for me in the long run that Inception won for cinematography because I'm banking on it taking a slew of tech awards and that could be a good indication of things to come.

• I don't find Justin Timberlake as irritating as I used to, but people who claim he's oh so hilarious are fucking retarded. Not funny at all.

• Ugh, time for the shorts. What to do with all this free time I now have?

8:09pm CST:

• Toy Story 3 winning Animated Feature was a lock, now 3 for 4. Well deserved, but I loved how the recipient thanked everyone for coming out to "support a movie with talking toys". Uhh...yeah, thanks for all the grass roots support for our little billion dollar cash printing machine known as the Toy Story franchise. Couldn't have done it without you!

• Ok raise your hand if every time you see a black and white photo of some 1920s Hollywood tuxedo ballroom party, you think of The Shining? Yeah, me too.

• Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem chose those tuxes because the ones from Dumb and Dumber were already out on loan.

• Aaron Sorkin takes it down for The Social Network, now 4 for 5. Obviously, well deserved, great script, great movie. Listen to that music swell and Sorkin doesn't back down, that's a fuckin man for ya.

• Both screenplay awards this early? Interesting. Aside from the Leo-Douglas fiasco, the awards do seem to be coming out relatively quickly, for the Academy anyway.

• The King's Speech takes Original Screenplay, now 5 for 6. As if we didn't know it already, but it's now confirmed, this show is all about The Social Network vs. The King's Speech. This dude and Kirk Douglas should have an old-off.

8:24pm CST:

• Does anyone else think Anne Hathaway needs to calm down? She needs to hit up Franco for that bud he surely has in his back pocket.

• I like Russell Brand and Helen Mirren is still the hottest 137 year old this planet has ever seen. Ok, Foreign Language film is always tough to call because it's a unique category in that anyone who votes must have seen all five nominees, plus most of the voters are older so they generally go with safer, feel good movies. And hey, look at that, I win again. Now, 6 for 7.

• Now for Best Supporting Actor. I was worried at the outset about this category, so let's do this like a band-aid and get it out of the way. By the way, I'm glad the Academy is back to showing actual clips of performances for the nominees instead of that one rogue year where instead of clips, they just had past winners verbally sucking off each nominee. Part of the fun of watching award contenders is trying to guess what their "Oscar clip" will be. Woohoo, my fears have been allayed as Bale most deservingly takes it. 7 for 8, now. Bale is the frontrunner for best speech so far.

• There can't possibly be a single person on this planet who cares about this Academy-ABC relationship bullshit, there's just no way.

• Trent Reznor takes Best Original Score, now 8 for 9. Well deserved, his score help set the tone and mood for The Social Network perfectly. I also enjoyed Hans Zimmer's bombastic, epic score for Inception. If you're keeping score at home Trent Reznor and Three Six Mafia now have Academy Awards and Alfred Hitchcock never won one.

• And the techie award love for Inception rolls on. It's the least they could do for not nominating Nolan for director. 9 for 10 now.

• I think they should make a rule where you're not allowed to thank anyone during acceptance speeches. You can thank them in person, no one else cares. But then I wonder what they'd talk about. Inevitably, you'd get someone up there who was just blindsided and had nothing profound to say, he'd just be like "So, how about them Lakers?".

• I like when films like Unstoppable or The Wolfman are nominated for some singularly random weird tech category b/c then they can claim their film was "Oscar-nominated". And hey, look at that, Inception again, this time for Sound Editing, 10 for 11 now. Who wants to pick up my bar tab when I go out tonight?

8:54pm CST:

• Of course, it's Rick Baker, he's the Michael Jordan of Best Makeup. 11 for 12 now.

• Alright and as I noted in last night's blog entry, the Costume Design category is very interesting this year. Let's see how I did: hell yeah, I'm on fire tonight. Colleen Atwood takes it for Alice in Wonderland, 12 for 13 now. The thing with Costume Design is that it rarely coincides with whoever is the frontrunner(s). The general rule of thumb I've found in recent years is that if it's an elaborate period piece, bet on that. Even if you've never heard of the film, always go with the one that's set in 18th century, preferably in some sort of royalty setting. Now, one might argue that The King's Speech fit this bill for this year, but TKS was much more subdued and didn't have the flashy, overblown costumes usually associated with films of its ilk. Then you look at what Alice in Wonderland brought to the table and that's why I went with it. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is how winning is done.

• Aw shit, I thought we were gonna escape individual song performances this year. Oscar, you've done it again!

• Is it just me or does James Franco seem like he'd rather be cutting his arm off with a box cutter than hosting the Oscars? Also, Jake Gyllenhaal always looks so sad, it's gonna be ok, Jake. By the way, Natalie Portman wants to meet up with you afterward so you can listen to Snow Patrol albums together and have a sad-off.

• Checking out all the twitter posts, people are bored by the Oscars due in part to categories they don't care about and/or know nothing about. Uh, have you ever watched the Oscars?

• Alright Luke Matheny, now get back to band practice, At the Drive In is waiting on you.

• I wonder if the Auto-Tune The News Guys get any royalties from the Academy "borrowing" their idea. Antoine Dodson still owns you all.

• Great shot of the Coen brothers, they hate all of this and I love them for it. Best Documentary, this is a tough call. I picked Exit Through the Gift Shop, but have a feeling Inside Job is going to take it. Damn it all. It was a coin flip and I picked the wrong one. 12 for 14 now. I really should have picked Inside Job as a very relevant topic and the Academy likes to show nothing if they're not important and matter in a real world way.

9:26pm CST:

• And there's my man, Billy Crystal, love that guy. I wonder who has more makeup, him or Anne Hathaway?

• Ok that callback to the first Academy Award telecast was pointless and unentertaining.

• And Inception takes Visual Effects, back on track now, 13 for 15. That'd be weird/funny/sad/odd/whatever if Inception ends up winning the most awards for the evening despite getting no love in most major categories. Oh, sweet irony, Academy!

• And now The Social Network takes Editing, 14 for 16 now. While I didn't expect The King's Speech to win anything it hasn't already (as evidenced by my predictions), it's still a little curious that it's not exhibiting ANY of the momentum it was thought to have coming in. Now, that doesn't mean shit really, but usually when you have a favorite, you'll have some indications of coattailing, so maybe this means TKS isn't as beloved as originally thought or there were several films the Academy loved so the wealth is being spread (probably the more likely reason). If someone were to look at the tallies alone so far, you'd think The Social Network and Inception were the two films of the year. Which makes sense because they are.

• I was a tad worried that A.R. Rahman would go Jai-Ho on everyone for not winning Best Original Song, but he kept it together. Old man Newman takes it and I'm 15 for 17 now. And now we have the big four left to go, no doubt delayed by a bunch of needless bullshit until then, mind you.

9:53pm CST:

• Sally Menke died? That sucks. Patricia Neal was strangely hot in Hud. Arthur Penn, solid director. Dennis Hopper, may you find all the insane psychedelics your heart desires in the afterlife. Gotta love the "In Memoriam" segments.

• And like I said, a pretty much worthless segment with no awards handed out. I guess they realized they could stretch this out for another hour and a half. That being said, for all the unnecessary bullshit they like to trot out, I'm not opposed to montages, I dig those in a sick, sick way. So I'll set the over-under on awards handed out in this next segments at 1.5. What you got? I'll say under.

• Ok I'm nervous about Best Director. I picked Fincher and he fucking deserves it of course (hell he's deserved it a couple of times in the past for films he wasn't even nominated for). I might do a back flip if Fincher wins. Motherfucking fuck fuck fuckkkkkkkk. This is such garbage and virtually locks up The King's Speech as the Best Picture winner, if it wasn't assured before. What a crock of horseshit. This isn't even Tom Hooper's best film. His last film, The Damned United, was far superior to TKS. Fuck this. 15 for 18.

• At least I was write about something, only one award handed out that segment, yay.

10:11pm CST:

• One good thing about tonight is that we get Jeff Bridges presenting. I'm pretty sure I could watch that guy play chess and be entertained, fucking fantastic actor. Looking at the nominees for Best Actress, Annette Bening was very good and she usually is, but I think Julianne Moore gave the better performance in The Kids Are All Right. I haven't seen Rabbit Hole so I haven't seen Nicole Kidman's performance, but I do plan on having a doubleheader of misery between that and Blue Valentine sometime soon. Jennifer Lawrence is great in The Winter's Bone, which is a film I'm glad is getting the recognition it has from the Academy, even if it doesn't win anything. And of course, Natalie Portman was great and deserves the Oscar she's about to get. 16 for 19. I wonder if Portman will look 12 forever?

• Look, I get that an Oscar signifies the ultimate reward for the "work" you do, but why do people cry? Accept it with grace and poise. Of course, the biggest disgrace was Halle Berry when she won for Monster's Ball, you would have thought she just cured cancer and resurrected all of her loved ones who have passed away, fucking get a grip, you're an adult.

• Now for Best Actor. Love me some Javier Bardem, haven't seen Biutiful yet, but it's by Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu so you know it'll be a nice big pile of misery that makes you want to shoot yourself in the face when it's over. Jeff Bridges was fucking hilarious in True Grit and is on a roll for the ages lately. He won't win, but the recognition he's finally getting is truly awesome. Now, Jesse Eisenberg, he deserves this award, but he won't get it and I'm angry, no more about that. Colin Firth, I hate talking bad about him because in this case, he's simply guilty by association. It is worth noting that he was mesmerizing in last year's A Single Man so if this award were being handed out in a vacuum and it wasn't associated with TKS, I wouldn't mind. Oh and James Franco was great in the very good, underrated 127 Hours. I love that he was nominated because he carried that film. And so as the sun sets in the west, Colin Firth wins. 17 for 20.

• British people winning awards suck because they stay away from charisma as if it were AIDS.
  

10:36pm CST:

• And the big "duh" moment of the evening has happened. Final tally of 18 for 21, yet it feels so empty *sob*

• To quote a very spot on "tweet" from one of my favorite TV writers, Alan Sepinwall: "Nice job, Spielberg, pointing out how often we remember the runners-up better than the winner. As we will this year." Amen, Alan.

Final Thoughts:

Very "meh" telecast. Nothing exciting or unexpected for the most part, the hosts were boring and unfunny and nary a montage to be found! I guess on the plus side, this may be the shortest Oscar telecast in recent memory "only" running just over 3 hours whereas they generally average something like 3 and a half hours at least. I also finished 18 for 21, which may be a personal best, but I'd have to double check, I wanna say it ties a personal best, but I'm not sure. To the archives!

2011 Oscar Predictions

Alright kids, it's Oscar Eve and normally, I do the predictions the day of, but I don't expect my mind to change much between now and tomorrow night, so let's just get it out of the way. Interesting year as some of the major categories are fore drawn conclusions while the others have potential upset written all over them. In the minor categories, I've found that a lot of categories have two legitimate candidates to win and it could go either way, so I have this feeling that I'm either going to annihilate everyone's faces tomorrow or be dreadfully wrong and I'll end up drowning my sorrows in a bottle of Bacardi Limon. Who am I kidding, I'll probably do the latter regardless. Ok so for the top 8 major categories (Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay), I'll offer a prediction of who I think will win and who I think should win (out of who was nominated, not overall). Let's get on with it:

Best Picture
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who Should Win: The Social Network

- This is all about timing. TSN is the most acclaimed film of the year and has cleaned up with the critics and plenty of pre-cursors, but by the time its momentum was slowing, TKS' was just picking up. It annoys me that TKS is going to win as its typical, generic, feel-good formula gunk you've seen a thousand times before (and done better too), but this is no time to get into that. I'm sure I might mention it a time or two tomorrow night.

Best Director
Who Will Win: David Fincher - The Social Network
Who Should Win: David Fincher - The Social Network

- I'm not 100% confident on this, but I have a feeling that David Fincher is playing the Ang Lee circa 2006 role here where Lee won director for Brokeback Mountain beating out hack, Paul Haggis, whose piece of garbage, Crash, took home Best Picture that year. It wouldn't shock me to see Tom Hooper take it while riding the King's Speech wave. If Fincher does win, it'll be well-deserved, he's long been one of this country's best filmmakers and arguably our most relevant as he seems to be the king of making zeitgeist movies.

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Who Should Win: Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network

- Book it and if I'm wrong, I'll let you pay me $100. It doesn't bother me b/c Firth is an excellent actor who continually turns in great work. He's very good here, but I think Eisenberg's complex, hypnotic work as Mark Zuckerberg in TSN was off the charts. If I talk shit about Firth tomorrow night, it'll be a reflection of my general disdain for TKS, so I apologize ahead of time, Colin.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Who Should Win: Natalie Portman - Black Swan

- Not as big a lock as Firth, but Portman has been the frontrunner all along and I see no reason for that to stop tomorrow night. She's deserving as she really bares it all in Black Swan and is by far the best thing about a film that is basically Aronofsky doing more Aronofskying. Now, it is worth noting that this is Annette Bening's 4th nomination and the long respected actress has never won. Do with that information what you will.

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Christian Bale - The Fighter
Who Should Win: Christian Bale - The Fighter

- I love this category this year. It's full of great actors being rightfully recognized for their tremendous work this year. I mean, how cool is it that you have John Hawkes, Mark Ruffalo, and Jeremy Renner all being nominated for the same category? Good job, Academy. Of course, Bale is the king as he gives an indelibly fantastic performance in The Fighter. Like Portman, he has been the frontrunner all along, so I'm predicting a win tomorrow night, but I have this gross feeling that Geoffrey Rush will come riding in at the last minute on a wave of King's Speechness to steal it from Bale's clutches. Oscar generally goes by the book, but they will toss in a curveball or two in the major categories like they do every year, so buyer beware.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Who Should Win: Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

- I'm going with Leo here as the respected veteran should overcome any issues with vote-splitting as Amy Adams is nominated in the same category for the same movie. I think the Academy will rally behind Leo similar to the way they did for Soderbergh in 2001 when he was nominated for Best Director for two different films. I'm slightly worried that Hailee Steinfeld could pull an upset for her work in True Grit b/c if there's one category in which Oscar likes to reward the young ingenue type, it's Best Supporting Actress. All worthy nominees here, but Weaver's chilling, haunting work in Animal Kingdom added a whole other layer to that film, she's the best of the bunch here, but unfortunately doesn't have a prayer.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: The King's Speech
Who Should Win: Inception

- It worked out nicely for Oscar as the two Best Pic frontrunners (The King's Speech and The Social Network) are nominated for screenplay awards in two different categories, so not only do they not have to face off, they each get to own their respective categories. It's ridiculous that one of the year's most original, ambitious, fascinating films (Inception) got basically pity nominations up and down the Oscars, but whatever. In 20 years, when The King's Speech will be a footnote, Inception will still be talked about for being the innovative, interesting piece of cinema that it is.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: The Social Network
Who Should Win: The Social Network

- Aaron Sorkin is largely credited with the success of TSN and rightfully so. This is one of the safer plays of the night.

Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Original Score: The Social Network
Best Original Song: Toy Story 3
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
Best Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland - Quick note about this: like I said last year, Costume Design is shooting up my power rankings as one of my favorite categories b/c it's difficult to predict and generally rewards the merits of the work and is generally not guilty of coattailing (which would especially be true if AiW wins, I mean who the hell likes that movie?). Also, this is a pretty epic showdown between Jenny Beavan (nominated here for The King's Speech) who has now been nominated 9 times (won just once) and Colleen Atwood (nominated here for Alice in Wonderland) who has also now been nominated 9 times (won twice), but is like the Albert Pujols of Costume Design as she has been nominated nearly every year of the last decade. Should be the showdown of the century!
Best Makeup: The Wolfman - If you ever bet against Rick Baker, you're an idiot (12 nominations, 6 wins).
Best Sound Mixing: Inception
Best Sound Editing: Inception
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Foreign Film: In a Better World
Best Documentary Feature: Exit Through the Gift Shop

- Ok so I'm predicting The Social Network to score the highest with 4 wins and The King's Speech to nab 3 wins. I'm also counting on Inception to perform like The Matrix in 2000 and get a slew of tech categories, otherwise I'm screwed. See you kids on the morrow.

I Don't Hate to Say I Told You So

So I trust you all cleaned up in Vegas by adhering to my Best Pic nomination predictions in the previous blog entry. If you didn't, well you should know better than to doubt me by now. And to think, I came this close to taking out Winter's Bone and replacing it with The Town, but decided not to because I had a feeling that if I did it, I'd fuck it all up. So the moral of the story is never, ever change your mind about anything because you will be wrong and will live out the rest of your days in painful regret. Anyway, here are a few thoughts regarding the nominations:

- A hell yeah for John Hawkes getting nominated for his work in Winter's Bone. Not only is he deserving, but it's nice to see the Academy recognize something for the quality of the work, not because it's a big name or part of a blockbuster. That little fella sure has come a long way since being set on fire by George Clooney and Quentin Tarantino at the beginning of From Dusk 'Til Dawn.

- 12 nominations for The King's Speech and 8 for The Social Network. I've said for a month or two now that I think it would be a two horse race for Best Picture and the nominations did nothing to change that perception. However, I was leaning SCN as far as the slight favorite, but now it's pretty undeniable that TKS is the frontrunner, especially since SCN is already on DVD while TKS is just now hitting its stride in its theatrical run. Also, it's probably not a big deal to make too much of the nomination count since TKS is the kind of film that racks up nominations due its technical merits and since Hollywood considers anything set pre-1990 to be a "period piece", it's more of a technicality that it has significantly more nominations than SCN than it is an indicator that it's a lock for Best Picture. SCN is the most well reviewed film of the year, so it still has a solid shot.

- Nice to see James Franco get a Best Actor nomination for his excellent work in 127 Hours, but go ahead and bet your life that it's going to be Colin Firth for The King's Speech who wins.

- Natalie Portman has definitely been the most talked about performer this year for her turn in Black Swan, but I'm still very curious to see if that mean she definitely walks away with the big prize or if there's some Annette Bening love from an older-skewing Academy voting populace. I still think it'll be Portman, but Bening wouldn't shock me either.

- Nice to see Jeremy Renner get a Best Supporting Actor nod for The Town. No one plays unhinged, borderline psychopath like Renner. Well, maybe Dennis Hopper (RIP).

- Best Supporting Actress is going to be a very tough call. My early lean is Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit with the logic being that Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split the vote for their work in The Fighter, but if one of them takes it, bet the house on Leo. Other than that, I think all the acting categories are pretty much foregone conclusions. We'll see how and if that changes over the next month as all the Oscar marketing campaigns launch into full time dick suckin' mode.

- The Best Directing category sure is a who's who of Mr. Cool Guy directors (Aronofsky, David O. Russell, the Coen bros, David Fincher)...well except for that Tom Hooper guy. He went to Oxford, how cool can he really be?

- In the Screenplay categories, The King's Speech is nominated for Best Original Screenplay and The Social Network for Best Adapted Screenplay, so they don't actually go up against each other (clever girl, Oscar). I wonder who's going to win these categories?!

- Poor Christopher Nolan, he must have date raped the head of the Academy's daughter or something because this guy can't ever get any love. He directs some of the most well reviewed, entertaining, interesting films that are huge successes, but can't ever get even a cursory director nomination. Sure, they'll toss him a screenplay nom as if to say, "Here's a treat ol' boy", but he has no shot and we all know it. And to think, Ron Howard can film himself clipping his toenails and get a Best Director nomination, utter bullshit.

- So there you have it. I'll go ahead and say that my sincerest hope is that Lily Tomlin shows up only to rile up David O. Russell. Then Sean Penn tries to be noble and step in so they get into it, while Christian Bale stands on the sidelines going "Ohhhh good for youuuu!" For those who don't understand the Tomlin-Russell connection, see below. Enjoy.

It's Never Too Early...

I just wanted to go ahead and get this on record so that we'll have documented evidence of my prognosticating prowess. Oscar nominations won't be announced until January 25th, but why wait? I'm gonna go ahead and tell you who I think the ten Best Picture nominees will be. Consider it an early Christmas present/tantalizing teaser of what's to come as we hit the home stretch of the 2010 movie season and gear up for the Oscars. I wasn't able to do my usual live commentary last year so I plan to make up for it this year by unleashing my Oscar fury with the force of 10,000 suns. I shan't be denied! Anyway, here ya go. Oh and by the way, my cut is 10% for your office Oscar pools.

The Social Network
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
The Fighter
True Grit
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right

BAM.