I Don't Hate to Say I Told You So

So I trust you all cleaned up in Vegas by adhering to my Best Pic nomination predictions in the previous blog entry. If you didn't, well you should know better than to doubt me by now. And to think, I came this close to taking out Winter's Bone and replacing it with The Town, but decided not to because I had a feeling that if I did it, I'd fuck it all up. So the moral of the story is never, ever change your mind about anything because you will be wrong and will live out the rest of your days in painful regret. Anyway, here are a few thoughts regarding the nominations:

- A hell yeah for John Hawkes getting nominated for his work in Winter's Bone. Not only is he deserving, but it's nice to see the Academy recognize something for the quality of the work, not because it's a big name or part of a blockbuster. That little fella sure has come a long way since being set on fire by George Clooney and Quentin Tarantino at the beginning of From Dusk 'Til Dawn.

- 12 nominations for The King's Speech and 8 for The Social Network. I've said for a month or two now that I think it would be a two horse race for Best Picture and the nominations did nothing to change that perception. However, I was leaning SCN as far as the slight favorite, but now it's pretty undeniable that TKS is the frontrunner, especially since SCN is already on DVD while TKS is just now hitting its stride in its theatrical run. Also, it's probably not a big deal to make too much of the nomination count since TKS is the kind of film that racks up nominations due its technical merits and since Hollywood considers anything set pre-1990 to be a "period piece", it's more of a technicality that it has significantly more nominations than SCN than it is an indicator that it's a lock for Best Picture. SCN is the most well reviewed film of the year, so it still has a solid shot.

- Nice to see James Franco get a Best Actor nomination for his excellent work in 127 Hours, but go ahead and bet your life that it's going to be Colin Firth for The King's Speech who wins.

- Natalie Portman has definitely been the most talked about performer this year for her turn in Black Swan, but I'm still very curious to see if that mean she definitely walks away with the big prize or if there's some Annette Bening love from an older-skewing Academy voting populace. I still think it'll be Portman, but Bening wouldn't shock me either.

- Nice to see Jeremy Renner get a Best Supporting Actor nod for The Town. No one plays unhinged, borderline psychopath like Renner. Well, maybe Dennis Hopper (RIP).

- Best Supporting Actress is going to be a very tough call. My early lean is Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit with the logic being that Melissa Leo and Amy Adams will split the vote for their work in The Fighter, but if one of them takes it, bet the house on Leo. Other than that, I think all the acting categories are pretty much foregone conclusions. We'll see how and if that changes over the next month as all the Oscar marketing campaigns launch into full time dick suckin' mode.

- The Best Directing category sure is a who's who of Mr. Cool Guy directors (Aronofsky, David O. Russell, the Coen bros, David Fincher)...well except for that Tom Hooper guy. He went to Oxford, how cool can he really be?

- In the Screenplay categories, The King's Speech is nominated for Best Original Screenplay and The Social Network for Best Adapted Screenplay, so they don't actually go up against each other (clever girl, Oscar). I wonder who's going to win these categories?!

- Poor Christopher Nolan, he must have date raped the head of the Academy's daughter or something because this guy can't ever get any love. He directs some of the most well reviewed, entertaining, interesting films that are huge successes, but can't ever get even a cursory director nomination. Sure, they'll toss him a screenplay nom as if to say, "Here's a treat ol' boy", but he has no shot and we all know it. And to think, Ron Howard can film himself clipping his toenails and get a Best Director nomination, utter bullshit.

- So there you have it. I'll go ahead and say that my sincerest hope is that Lily Tomlin shows up only to rile up David O. Russell. Then Sean Penn tries to be noble and step in so they get into it, while Christian Bale stands on the sidelines going "Ohhhh good for youuuu!" For those who don't understand the Tomlin-Russell connection, see below. Enjoy.