Live Bloggin' the 2013 Oscars

Alright alright alright, I'm probably inappropriately excited about this evening's ceremony, but I don't care.  This is my 8th year doing this so I know what I'm doing and I'm kind of a big deal dontcha know.  Every year, I feel compelled to say this and this year is no exception: the Oscars is by no means the be all end all or authority on the perceived quality of a film or performance...it's a bunch of old dudes with their own agendas doling out handjobs in gold statue form to their friends, ok?  And we already know ahead of time that practically every moment of tonight's ceremony will be some of the most egocentric, self-important/congratulatory bullshit you will see all year.  If you didn't know better, the Academy would have you believe that the films released last year helped facilitate the end of world hunger as we know it and in its spare time, resurrected John Lennon and George Harrison from the dead to get the Beatles back together.  All that being said, I love film and some sick side of me loves all the overblown pageantry and nonsense that is the glorious Oscars telecast.  And to be fair, at the end of the day, I love film and as easy as it is to denigrate the Academy, they do actually honor some pretty excellent films (with the exception of Les Miserables).  One interesting aspect this year is that I don't have any films I'm actively rooting for or against.  Last time I did this, I was firmly in the anti-King's Speech camp, but that was mainly b/c I knew it would win and didn't deserve to.  This year, I felt the two best films that were nominated were The Master and Zero Dark Thirty and neither has a chance to really win anything they were nominated for so it doesn't matter.  Plus, it doesn't hurt that the films that probably will win, are all fine films.  So while this year's awards should be unpredictable, I don't think it'll piss me off. 

Oh and one more thing, for the past few years, I always make reference to Louis Gossett Jr classin' up the joint the way only the star of Iron Eagle can do and he has yet to make an appearance recently.  Did something happen to him?  Surely the Academy wouldn't stop inviting him would they?  Gossett!!! I'm coming for YOU.

7:09pm CST:

• OK I don't care about this red carpet nonsense, but it's on while I do some last minute prepping and I couldn't resist saying something after hearing Adele speak.  I love how this woman has this angelic voice when she's singing and when she speaks, she sounds like she should be working in an 18th century brothel in the poorer outskirts of London..."Would you like to play wit me tits?!"

• So we all know that the Oscars get boffo ratings around the world and a big part of it is the legions of women and gay men tuning in for the fashion aspect and the whole red carpet thing, so they've done this part of the broadcast A LOT and yet, it still remains some of the most awkward television around. Some of the questions these hosts asks and the befuddled responses given by the actors/actresses are gold.  "Hey Bradley Cooper, after your publicist made you endure the most awkward interview of your entire career at my hands...can you guess what's hidden in this box under this blanket?  It's our Oscar mystery!" "Ummm......"

• Seth MacFarlane as host? Sure, why not.  Could be worse (Whoopi Goldberg, the Hathaway/Franco combo), could be better (Jon Stewart, Steve Martin), but it has potential.  I'm not a huge Family Guy fan and I'm sure that MacFarlane will be largely defanged, but I'm sure he'll be able to still get some decent jabs in there.  I think he'll do solidly.  I don't think he'll be one of the best, but he won't drag it down either. 

7:56pm CST:

• There's a "theme" to the Oscars this year and it's "music in film".  Great.

• Did anyone find "We Saw Your Boobs" funny?  This opening monologue has been pretty lacking so far.

•  Now Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron dancing...because that's why we all watch the Oscars.

•  I have no idea who had this idea of the whole William Shatner time travel gimmick, but whoever it is needs to be fired, right now. 
•  I would have been completely ok with a decent monologue and some montages about how great film is and how it's helped advance the human race, I'm a sucker for montages.  Instead, we get all this singing nonsense.

•  Ok finally, an actual award.  Best Supporting Actor is a very tough race to call and I'm going with Jones, but I don't feel confident about it.  If it's not him, I think it'll be Deniro.  And just so we're clear, Philip Seymour Hoffman SHOULD win, but he won't, he's absolutely phenomenal in The Master.

• Wow, and it goes to Christoph Waltz and I'm 0 for 1.  I guess Deniro and Jones split the old guy vote.  Hard to argue with this.  Waltz was awesome, I just didn't think he'd win again so quickly, but it's nice to see the Academy acknowledging quality because Waltz is definitely worthy. 

8:15pm CST:

•  I love Paul Rudd.  I don't love Melissa McCarthy.  This intro did nothing to change my mind.  

• I hate starting off 0 for 1.  I'm angry now.  And I don't predict shorts so redemption will have to wait a few more moments.

• Andddd now 0 for 2.  Brave doesn't deserve to go under the Pixar name, very lackluster effort.  I knew this ceremony would be unpredictable, but I didn't expect to lose this category.  

• Well if that doesn't make you wanna see Les Miserables, I don't know what will.

• I kinda like the idea of combining the Best Pic montages into groups of threes (assuming they do the rest of the night).  You get the same effect and it's much more efficient.

•  Most of the main actors from The Avengers to present an award with the exception of Thor.  What, Chris Hemsworth was just too busy to make an appearance?

• And I finally get one right.  Claudio Miranda wins Cinematography for Life of Pi as I'm now 1 for 3.  Poor Roger Deakins, who is apparently now the Susan Lucci of the Oscars...now 0 for 9.  

• And Life of Pi wins for Visual Effects as I'm now 2 for 4.  The good news is my prediction that the love for the technical merits of Life of Pi runs deep seems to be coming true which unfortunately has no bearing on how it'll fare in the major categories and the bad news is, I've already missed two.  F*!k!!!

8:31pm CST:

• Those poor Visual Effects nerds getting cut off was mildly funny and all, but if you wanna see awesome, the Independent Spirit Awards kind of won that category last night as Derek Connolly, writer and director of Safety Not Guaranteed, went up to accept his award while clearly drunk and rambled on for five whole minutes only to have Bryan Cranston eventually go on stage and poor him a shot of Jameson.  THAT is how you boot someone off stage.

• And when in doubt about Costume Design, go with the big period piece.  And if it stars Keira Knightley, that's just a bonus to help lock it in.  I feared that Les Miserables may have an outside shot here and in other similar categories, but I don't think there's tremendous amounts of support for that film.  Now 3 for 5.

• So of course right after I say that, Les Miserables takes it home for Makeup and Hairstyling, I've righted the ship for now at 4 for 6.  Why do makeup and hairstyling people have the ability to win actual awards for their work on others, but they themselves look like they just rolled out of bed after drinking for 12 hours straight?

• A Bond montage...meh.  Never been a huge fan.  I watched them growing up because my dad was a fan, but I haven't even seen the new ones with Daniel Craig so this is just a waste of time to me. 

 8:38pm CST:

•  And the best speech of the night so far comes from the Best Live Action Short guy, go figure.

•  Since this seems to be a dead spot in the telecast, just for the record, I'm going to rank all nine films that were nominated for Best Picture in order of ones I most liked to least liked: Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, Argo, Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Amour, Life of Pi, Les Miserables.  There, that was fun.

• And Best Documentary was one of the few locks of the night as Searching for Sugar Man takes it down.  Now 5 for 7.

9:23pm CST:

• Foreign Language film may have been the biggest lock in that category since Pan's Labyrinth, 6 for 8. Don't let Michael Haneke fool you with his polite disposition, he hates all of you and all of humanity.

• Kind of weird that we live in a world in which Chicago won 6 Oscars.  Or maybe not, Titanic won 11.  Some years are just doomed.

• I won't lie, I like Jennifer Hudson.  She even sings like a sassy black woman.

• Ok, god help us all.  I guess it's not enough that Les Miserables inexplicably got nominated for 8 Oscars, but now we get a song on top of it, oh goody.

• Oh a Ted bit, no one saw that coming.  

• Ok I'm cruising now, but I don't feel good about it.  No one should be able to celebrate a win for Les Miserables, now 7 for 9.

• A tie?? Really??  Well, this is a first.  I mean, I did pick Skyfall so fuck it, I'm taking credit, I got it right.  8 for 10.

• I love seeing all these "tech people" winning awards b/c when you compare them to all the Hollywood stars gracing the stage, it's almost like..."hey guys, here's what normal people look like!" 

9:43pm CST:

• Anne Hathaway winning was one of the few "duh" awards for the evening and rightfully so.  An unfortunately very weak category this year, but she was good enough.  9 for 11.  On a hot streak after missing the first two, but don't get confused, I'm still pissed.  

• Does some of the laughter sound canned?  I mean, I know Seth MacFarlane isn't making people double over in paroxysms of laughter, but geez. That's embarrassing.

• If Argo wins for Editing, Best Picture is even more of a lock.  Yep, I'm back baby.  10 for 12.

• If they got rid of the live performances of...well any song really, I'd be totally fine with that. 

 10:09pm CST:

• Silver Linings Playbook, Django Unchained, and Amour. That'd make for a helluva night of movie watching.

• Production Design is a tough one.  I picked Life of Pi b/c I fully believe that the Academy is most taken with its technical merits, but it wouldn't shock me to see Les Miserables or Lincoln take it.  And there ya go, stupid Lincoln. I'm now 10 for 13.

• I've never understood why there's such widespread hatred for Kristen Stewart.  It seems especially prevalent among females.  I'm guessing it's b/c she projects this "yes, I will fuck your boyfriend/husband and I don't give a shit what you have to say about it" kinda vibe.  I love whores.

• Is it weird that I love the "In Memoriam" segment?  George A. Bowers looks like the sassiest, most no nonsense editor ever.  Mike Hopkins did sound for Transformers? Yeah, good riddance, my ears still haven't recovered.  Well, other than Tony Scott, I'd say no significant losses this year, not too shabby.  We'd have to say 2012 was a win because of that.  *sigh* I'm going to hell...

• A song by ol' Babs?!  Just what the doctor ordered.  I've been waiting on that Marvin Hamlisch tribute all goddamn night. 

10:27pm CST:

• That reference to Rex Reed reviewing Adele's performance later was the best joke MacFarlane made all night.  If you're unfamiliar, go look up Rex Reed's review of the Melissa McCarthy starring vehicle, Identity Thief. Epic.

• Did I miss something? Is Chicago considered an all-time classic Oscar winner and I'm just in the dark on this?

• Well, I was right about one thing, the love for Life of Pi, hopefully it carries over to Best Director as it takes down Score.  11 for 14.

• Another "duh" moment as Adele wins for Skyfall. Now 12 for 15. 

 10:36pm CST:

• And the mad love for the Argo train continues as it takes Adapted Screenplay.  Now 12 for 16.  Don't say I didn't warn you.  And now I'm gonna be wrong for Original Screenplay.

• Well, I guess I can take solace in the fact that for all of the ones I got wrong, I often said "well if it's not this one, it'll be THIS one", so I'm silver-medaling like a motherfucker.  Now 12 for 17 as Tarantino wins Original Screenplay.

• No one can hate on a Tarantino speech.  We all know he's been doing blow in the parking lot and just itching to get out of there so he can go to a nightclub and drink shots of tequila off of strippers' tits all night.  God bless him!

• I guess I misappropriated the love for Amour where it should have been for Django Unchained. I guess I just assumed that outside of Pulp Fiction, Tarantino hasn't gotten much Oscar love so I thought they put his films into a certain niche type of category, but apparently not.  It sucks to be wrong, but on the other hand, I consider Django to be one of the best films of the year, so it's worthy and nice to see honestly.

10:48pm CST:

• Best Director is one of the toughest categories to call.  I've gotten all my other tough categories wrong, maybe I'll actually get one right now.  And heyyyy, look at that!  Law of averages people, I was due eventually as my boy Ang Lee takes it down.  13 for 18.  

• So I was right about the love for Life of Pi and wrong about the love for Amour. That being said, let's see if Oscar has one more upset left in her as I've predicted Riva to pull the upset in the Actress category.

• Best Actress is a very strong category this year as every performance is fantastic.  I personally prefer Jennifer Lawrence and she's been the frontrunner all along, but let's see if that plays out.  Also, I watched The Impossible today and my goodness, what a harrowing film.  Naomi Watts is terrific.  And there you have it.  I was totally off on Amour, oh well, 13 for 19.  Should finish 15 for 21, bleh.

11:04pm CST:

• I will say that it's a goddamn travesty that John Hawkes wasn't even nominated for phenomenal work in The Sessions. Hugh Jackman, are you fucking serious?  I still can't decide if Joaquin Phoenix gave a great performance, but it's certainly...something.  I'll just give it benefit of the doubt b/c I love The Master that much.  And DDL makes history, 14 for 20.

• Hey hey everybody, it's the Daniel Day-Lewis standup comedy hour, oh my goodness, my sides!

• Oh christ, here we go.  Since Michelle Obama is presenting nominees, here comes a wave of political nonsense on Facebook, thanks Academy!

• It's hard not to be happy for Ben Affleck, who has proven himself to be a truly terrific filmmaker. Not even being nominated for Director was ridiculous, but I don't even think he cares and wow, love that speech.  So humble and gracious and enthusiastic.  He's a guy that just loves movies and that's what it's all about.  Oh and 15 for 21.  Ew.

Final Thoughts:

- I feel like I say this a lot lately, but yet again, not a very good production. Seth MacFarlane was even worse than I thought he could've been.  Perhaps not his fault, but it is what it is.  Plus I've seen hosts succeed so I know it can be done.  I finished 15 for 21 which is what I did back in 2010 and about what I expected considering the unpredictability of a lot of the awards this year.  Either way, it was fun to get back in the saddle, I was rusty, so I guess I need to write more.  Toodles. 

Oscar Predictions 2013

It's been over a year, so it makes sense to post another entry now for all of you who don't actually read this blog.  I was out of commission for last year's ceremony so I'm back with a fury this year and ready to rock.  It should be a fun one as I feel like several key and not so key categories come down to at least one or two contenders, meaning a lot of categories are far from locks so it should be a fun night.  Back in good ol' 2011, I finished the night 18 of 21 on my predictions, so obviously the Academy had to step up their game as I was inching closer and closer to complete and total Oscar domination.  I'm posting my predictions now so that no one can question the legitimacy of my perfect record come Sunday:

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

- This Best Picture race has been quite interesting as early on, it seemed it was Lincoln's to lose and since Ben Affleck didn't even get nominated for Best Director, there was no way a film without even a Best Director nomination could win, but somewhere along the way, everyone remembered that they loved Argo.  Oh and then it started winning every pre-cursor imaginable and it was, bye bye Lincoln.  I really think this is one of the more secure categories to predict, if for no other reason that I can't see any of the potential "dark horses" actually winning.  Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook will all get their votes, but in the end, ol' Ben will get the last laugh and Oscar night 2013 will forever be known as "Affleck's Revenge"...and no one shall be spared.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Not terribly crazy about any of the nominees, so of the Best Picture nominees who were absent a director nomination, I'll just say that either Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty or Ben Affleck for Argo would've worked just fine for me

- Very tough race to call here as I really feel like it's Spielberg vs. Lee.  I think the love for Life of Pi runs deep and it will be rewarded as such here.  That being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Spielberg take home his third directing Oscar and for some strange reason, I have this feeling that Michael Haneke could pull a Roman Polanski circa 2003 and come out of nowhere to win Best Director.  I feel like Amour is a serious contender in a lot of categories and has a chance to win Director, Original Screenplay, Foreign Film (duh), and Actress. 

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

- Look, it's kind of unfair at this point.  Day-Lewis is a phenomenal actor and he just so happens to get the most plum roles imaginable.  Not to take anything away from him, but he's not exactly slumming it when he's getting the roles of Bill the Butcher, Daniel Plainview, or Abraham freakin' Lincoln, I mean, c'mon.  It'll be unprecedented as the Academy has never bestowed the Best Actor award to any one actor 3 times, but I think everyone agrees that Day-Lewis is worthy.  And he will, as Sean Penn, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks, and Jack Nicholson all sneer at him from their bitter corners clutching their lonely two Best Actor Oscars...Marlon Brando is passed out on a beach somewhere surrounded by candy wrappers, so he doesn't give a shit.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

- Lawrence has been considered the favorite for quite a while and rightfully so, she's an absolute dynamo, but I feel that the Best Actress Oscar is generally given to more established actresses and when it's a showdown between an old vet versus the up and comer, go with the old vet.  The Best Supporting Actress category is the one typically more willing to dole out awards to the ingenues.  Don't get me wrong, Emmanuelle Riva is phenomenal and deserves all the praise she has been getting, I just slightly prefer Lawrence's performance, but she'll get her Oscar, it's inevitable and I believe the Academy feels the same way

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

- Of the "major" categories, this may be the most competitive as each nominee has won before and it doesn't appear that anyone has established a clear cut lead.  I'm leaning Jones, but part of me has a very strong feeling that Deniro's return to legitimate acting has garnered some "awww there's our special little guy!" sentiments from Academy voters.  I think Waltz would have a better shot had he not just won 3 short years.  Hoffman absolutely deserves it as he gave one of the best performances of the year in the best film of the year, but I don't think there's much love for The Master. I'm going with Jones, but I don't feel good about it.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

- One of the surest things this year as Hathaway was easily the best part about Les Miserables.  She has been the frontrunner all along and there's no reason to believe she won't take this home on Sunday.  As I've mentioned before, the Academy has no issues with giving out this award to the young up and comers and while Hathaway isn't brand new, she's generally viewed as an actress who will be a force for a long time.  If you're looking for any upset potential, Sally Field could be that for Lincoln, but no.  It won't happen.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Michael Haneke - Amour
Who Should Win: Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

- Interesting that at one point, this was seen as Mark Boal's to lose and now he basically has no shot, which is a damn shame, but oh well.  Screenplay is also generally a category where voters use it as an opportunity to reward a film they really liked, but not enough to win Best Picture (i.e. Lost in Translation, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, etc.).  As a result, it'd be easy to think that Moonrise Kingdom could scratch that particular itch, but there seems to be hardly any support for Wes Anderson's nice little film, plus it only has one nomination, so it has no shot.  This is a two-horse race between Haneke and Tarantino.  Part of me feels that if Haneke goes on to win Best Director, then this is Tarantino's and if he doesn't, this is Haneke's.  Since I'm predicting Ang Lee to win Director, I'm going with Haneke here, but I don't feel good about it.  I truly believe that the love for Amour is very real and will prove itself to be true on Sunday, so I'm all in on that film and if I'm wrong, I'm going down with the ship.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Chris Terrio - Argo

- I feel like this is another two horse race as clearly, since it should win Best Picture, there's plenty of love for Argo so it's reasonable to think it'll win screenplay, but I think Kushner is so highly regarded and that Lincoln has the most nominations for a reason, therefore I'm going with Kushner.  If you're looking for a dark horse, Silver Linings Playbook did surprise everyone by being nominated for every single major award, so obviously the Academy was quite smitten with it and this could be the category they choose to reward it, but I'm betting against that.  SLP will shockingly go home with zilch on Oscar night.

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

- I'm betting big on the love for Life of Pi as I've predicted it to be the big winner with 5 followed by Lincoln, Amour, and *shudder* Les Miserables with 3 each.  Saying out loud that Life of Pi will be the biggest winner on Oscar night just doesn't seem accurate, but when I break down each race and take into the account the overall parity of this year's field, I guess that's what the results might just bear out.