Oscar Predictions 2013

It's been over a year, so it makes sense to post another entry now for all of you who don't actually read this blog.  I was out of commission for last year's ceremony so I'm back with a fury this year and ready to rock.  It should be a fun one as I feel like several key and not so key categories come down to at least one or two contenders, meaning a lot of categories are far from locks so it should be a fun night.  Back in good ol' 2011, I finished the night 18 of 21 on my predictions, so obviously the Academy had to step up their game as I was inching closer and closer to complete and total Oscar domination.  I'm posting my predictions now so that no one can question the legitimacy of my perfect record come Sunday:

Best Picture
Who Will Win: Argo
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty

- This Best Picture race has been quite interesting as early on, it seemed it was Lincoln's to lose and since Ben Affleck didn't even get nominated for Best Director, there was no way a film without even a Best Director nomination could win, but somewhere along the way, everyone remembered that they loved Argo.  Oh and then it started winning every pre-cursor imaginable and it was, bye bye Lincoln.  I really think this is one of the more secure categories to predict, if for no other reason that I can't see any of the potential "dark horses" actually winning.  Life of Pi, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook will all get their votes, but in the end, ol' Ben will get the last laugh and Oscar night 2013 will forever be known as "Affleck's Revenge"...and no one shall be spared.

Best Director
Who Will Win: Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Not terribly crazy about any of the nominees, so of the Best Picture nominees who were absent a director nomination, I'll just say that either Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty or Ben Affleck for Argo would've worked just fine for me

- Very tough race to call here as I really feel like it's Spielberg vs. Lee.  I think the love for Life of Pi runs deep and it will be rewarded as such here.  That being said, I wouldn't be shocked to see Spielberg take home his third directing Oscar and for some strange reason, I have this feeling that Michael Haneke could pull a Roman Polanski circa 2003 and come out of nowhere to win Best Director.  I feel like Amour is a serious contender in a lot of categories and has a chance to win Director, Original Screenplay, Foreign Film (duh), and Actress. 

Best Actor
Who Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis - Lincoln

- Look, it's kind of unfair at this point.  Day-Lewis is a phenomenal actor and he just so happens to get the most plum roles imaginable.  Not to take anything away from him, but he's not exactly slumming it when he's getting the roles of Bill the Butcher, Daniel Plainview, or Abraham freakin' Lincoln, I mean, c'mon.  It'll be unprecedented as the Academy has never bestowed the Best Actor award to any one actor 3 times, but I think everyone agrees that Day-Lewis is worthy.  And he will, as Sean Penn, Dustin Hoffman, Tom Hanks, and Jack Nicholson all sneer at him from their bitter corners clutching their lonely two Best Actor Oscars...Marlon Brando is passed out on a beach somewhere surrounded by candy wrappers, so he doesn't give a shit.

Best Actress
Who Will Win: Emmanuelle Riva - Amour
Who Should Win: Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook

- Lawrence has been considered the favorite for quite a while and rightfully so, she's an absolute dynamo, but I feel that the Best Actress Oscar is generally given to more established actresses and when it's a showdown between an old vet versus the up and comer, go with the old vet.  The Best Supporting Actress category is the one typically more willing to dole out awards to the ingenues.  Don't get me wrong, Emmanuelle Riva is phenomenal and deserves all the praise she has been getting, I just slightly prefer Lawrence's performance, but she'll get her Oscar, it's inevitable and I believe the Academy feels the same way

Best Supporting Actor
Who Will Win: Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - The Master

- Of the "major" categories, this may be the most competitive as each nominee has won before and it doesn't appear that anyone has established a clear cut lead.  I'm leaning Jones, but part of me has a very strong feeling that Deniro's return to legitimate acting has garnered some "awww there's our special little guy!" sentiments from Academy voters.  I think Waltz would have a better shot had he not just won 3 short years.  Hoffman absolutely deserves it as he gave one of the best performances of the year in the best film of the year, but I don't think there's much love for The Master. I'm going with Jones, but I don't feel good about it.

Best Supporting Actress
Who Will Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables

- One of the surest things this year as Hathaway was easily the best part about Les Miserables.  She has been the frontrunner all along and there's no reason to believe she won't take this home on Sunday.  As I've mentioned before, the Academy has no issues with giving out this award to the young up and comers and while Hathaway isn't brand new, she's generally viewed as an actress who will be a force for a long time.  If you're looking for any upset potential, Sally Field could be that for Lincoln, but no.  It won't happen.

Best Original Screenplay
Who Will Win: Michael Haneke - Amour
Who Should Win: Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

- Interesting that at one point, this was seen as Mark Boal's to lose and now he basically has no shot, which is a damn shame, but oh well.  Screenplay is also generally a category where voters use it as an opportunity to reward a film they really liked, but not enough to win Best Picture (i.e. Lost in Translation, Little Miss Sunshine, Juno, etc.).  As a result, it'd be easy to think that Moonrise Kingdom could scratch that particular itch, but there seems to be hardly any support for Wes Anderson's nice little film, plus it only has one nomination, so it has no shot.  This is a two-horse race between Haneke and Tarantino.  Part of me feels that if Haneke goes on to win Best Director, then this is Tarantino's and if he doesn't, this is Haneke's.  Since I'm predicting Ang Lee to win Director, I'm going with Haneke here, but I don't feel good about it.  I truly believe that the love for Amour is very real and will prove itself to be true on Sunday, so I'm all in on that film and if I'm wrong, I'm going down with the ship.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who Will Win: Tony Kushner - Lincoln
Who Should Win: Chris Terrio - Argo

- I feel like this is another two horse race as clearly, since it should win Best Picture, there's plenty of love for Argo so it's reasonable to think it'll win screenplay, but I think Kushner is so highly regarded and that Lincoln has the most nominations for a reason, therefore I'm going with Kushner.  If you're looking for a dark horse, Silver Linings Playbook did surprise everyone by being nominated for every single major award, so obviously the Academy was quite smitten with it and this could be the category they choose to reward it, but I'm betting against that.  SLP will shockingly go home with zilch on Oscar night.

Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Original Score: Life of Pi
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: Les Miserables
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Skyfall
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man

- I'm betting big on the love for Life of Pi as I've predicted it to be the big winner with 5 followed by Lincoln, Amour, and *shudder* Les Miserables with 3 each.  Saying out loud that Life of Pi will be the biggest winner on Oscar night just doesn't seem accurate, but when I break down each race and take into the account the overall parity of this year's field, I guess that's what the results might just bear out.