Wednesday, December 22, 2010

It's Never Too Early...

I just wanted to go ahead and get this on record so that we'll have documented evidence of my prognosticating prowess. Oscar nominations won't be announced until January 25th, but why wait? I'm gonna go ahead and tell you who I think the ten Best Picture nominees will be. Consider it an early Christmas present/tantalizing teaser of what's to come as we hit the home stretch of the 2010 movie season and gear up for the Oscars. I wasn't able to do my usual live commentary last year so I plan to make up for it this year by unleashing my Oscar fury with the force of 10,000 suns. I shan't be denied! Anyway, here ya go. Oh and by the way, my cut is 10% for your office Oscar pools.

The Social Network
Inception
The King's Speech
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
Winter's Bone
The Fighter
True Grit
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right


BAM.

Tuesday, November 09, 2010

Oh Dexter, I wish I knew how to quit you

So, I'm in the midst of episode 6 of the latest season of Dexter and as I roll my eyes about yet another worthless subplot involving the even more worthless supporting characters or the narrative voiceover that is the complete and utter opposite of subtle, I still found that I was really into the show itself. It got me thinking...when this show is gone, I'm really going to miss it. For all the litany of reasons I could rattle off as far as what the show does poorly, what keeps me coming back? Why, despite all of its flaws, do I love this? I decided to make a Pros and Cons list to try and sort it out. At some point, the Cons may take over, but let's go into this with a positive mindset.

Pro: Michael C. Hall. That's an easy one. I can't say he is definitely the best actor working in dramatic television (he's up there for sure), but is there anyone more valuable to the quality of their show? I'm consistently convinced from season to season that Michael C. Hall single-handedly elevates this show to another level. Without him, Dexter would struggle just to attain mediocrity.

Con: Every other supporting character. I don't know of a show on television that has a more poorly written and poorly acted ensemble than Dexter. Not a single subplot is interesting and only serves to take time away from what we want to watch anyway and that is of course, Dexter himself. Do you care about Deb's love life? Angel and LaGuerta's marriage? This is banal crap culled directly from soap operas. Making matters worse, they kill off any interesting (or least, tolerable) supporting characters they've ever had. The main guest stars notwithstanding (ice truck killer, Lila, Miguel, Trinity), people like Doakes and Lundy were at least fun and added another element to the show. So they get killed, but we're stuck with Quinn? Gee, thanks guys.

Pro: Suspenseful, engaging narrative. I will never toss many accolades Dexter's way when it comes to the art of writing, but goddamn, they know how to keep you on the edge of your seat and keep you engaged. Even in scenarios where for instance, Dexter is at a crime scene before the police arrive and he has a body in his car, you see Deb and Masuka rounding the corner as Dexter tries to stay out of sight. Obviously, if you have half a brain, it's not as if this scenario is going to end with all of Miami P.D. including Deb catching Dexter red-handed chopping up a body, BUT the way the show is written and the way they wring suspense out of these scenarios makes the tension run high and is very effective, especially for something that is a blatant red herring and offensive to the audience's intelligence. That's a minor example, but the show on the whole does a terrific job of making the main narrative each season compelling, even if we generally know how it's going to end.

Con: Voiceover. While it's difficult to picture Dexter without Michael C. Hall's monotone/sometimes sardonic voiceover narration, that doesn't mean it's a not major writing crutch and one of the more egregious examples of how the writers/show-runners behind Dexter really don't think much of its audience's intelligence. If part of the point of any sort of filmic art is to "show, don't tell" as much as possible, the voiceover in Dexter is especially offensive as its sole purpose seems to be captain fucking obvious and make ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY SURE that you know what the fuck is happening right here!!!

Pro: The music. Maybe I'm starting to reach a little here, but one of the things that occurred to me when I thought of how I really would miss Dexter once it's gone is that I really like the musical cues in the show. They're one of the few more subtle elements of the show and the directors have used them to good effect throughout the show's run. Generally, aesthetic elements are the things you first think of when looking back on a show and I think the music is Dexter's strongest aesthetic representative.

Con: No balls. Killing Rita at the end of season 4 was bold, but midway through season 5 now, I see it less as a game-changer than just an excuse to have a "shocking" ending for the sake of shock value and also to get rid of a character who had become increasingly annoying over the years (although I'm sure January Jones was psyched when it happened as she could finally take her rightful place at the throne of "most loathesome wife on television"). The fact that the death of Rita didn't really alter anything drastically from a functionality standpoint is no surprise. My biggest disappointment with Dexter as a whole is that it started out as a show that actually asked interesting questions about morality and was a fascinating character study, but has gradually morphed into a gussied-up police procedural where all kinds of intense, exciting things may happen within a season, but rest assured, the big baddie will die at the hands of Dexter, he won't get caught, and everything will work out okay. It never lived up to its potential (as I saw it anyway) and it pisses me off. It still has a great lead and from a purely visceral standpoint, it's as entertaining as anything on television, but I can't help but wonder how it would have turned out if it had a main creative force behind it (instead of a team of hack tv writers, not to mention Showtime producers) guiding it with a singular vision and if it was on HBO (or AMC).

At the end of the day, Dexter is like that hot, dumb girlfriend you can't break up with because even though she has a brain the size of a walnut, she still looks awesome in tank tops and likes to make you sandwiches, so there's something to be said for that.

And now...TV Power Rankings (and these are not permanent overall rankings, to understand the elaborate Power Ranking algorithm, just go back a few entries where I break it down) just for grins!

12) Bored to Death
11) Community
10) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
9) Dexter
8) Modern Family
7) Sons of Anarchy
6) The Office
5) Boardwalk Empire
4) 30 Rock
3) The League
2) The Walking Dead
1) Eastbound and Down

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Fuck Everybody

Yeah, this about sums it up.

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Potpourri

A hodgepodge of observations and random thoughts on...whatever:

- Well, 2 episodes in and True Blood is back in all its brain-deaded glory. If you ever worried that it couldn't live up to the lofty artistic heights established by the first 2 seasons, well fear not! The dialogue is still laughably horrible, Stephen Moyer still gives some of the most inept/awkward line readings in the history of the medium, there are plot threads aplenty that are wholly purposeless, and on and on and on. But at least there are still boobies. And I still can't believe there was a character named "Eggs" last season, good lawd. One thing I do like about the show aside from the aforementioned boobies is that they've fully committed to making Jason Stackhouse a complete and utter moron, it's the most inspired creative decision the writers have ever made. It's not that it's the worst show ever made, but the fact that this is HBO's biggest moneymaker since The Sopranos just depresses the shit outta me and I realize that without crap like True Blood raking in the dough, epics like The Pacific would probably have a much tougher time getting made, so maybe it's a necessary evil. Making matters worse is I watch the damn thing b/c A) I started watching it from the beginning and I guess I'm some kind of masochistic completist and B) There isn't anything else on. Breaking Bad ended last week and Treme ends tonight so that leaves this and Tosh.0. Another maddening HBO show that needs to be put out of its misery comes back next week in Entourage, so I'll be all over that too (summer is the time to slum it!). Then our knight in shining armor comes riding in on a translucent steed in the form of Rescue Me on June 29th, thank christ.

- Speaking of Treme, I started off really digging the show and not even minding the fact that there was no central driving narrative, I just enjoyed hanging out with the characters and getting a feel for their struggle to rebuild their lives after Katrina. After 9 very long episodes, I realize I'm kinda over that. It's not a bad show by any means, but I'm starting to think it may have made a better mini-series than ongoing TV show. I just don't know how the show's m.o. can be sustained without boring its viewers to tears. And another thing, can we chill out on the sanctimonious New Orleans fellatio? It wouldn't kill the writers to have an entire episode go by without having Creighton or Davis say something incredibly reverential about New Orleans like it's the lost city of gold. New Orleans is a cool city and it's beyond a travesty what they've been through, but let the show speak for itself, no need to constantly remind us that you love New Orleans, I think we can figure that out. And if I see one more old white guy standing in front of a horn player swaying back and forth while biting his lower lip, I think I'm gonna rip my eyes out of their sockets.

- I don't feel it's premature to label Breaking Bad's third season as one of the finest in the history of television. For a show that I thought had hit its apex in season 2, the fact that it continues to get better and better is astounding to me. This show is history in the making, hyperbole be damned. I was listening to a discussion at The Onion's AV Club website about the finale and they brought up an interesting point about the writing process for the show that may be a key reason why the show is so unpredictable and intense, yet always logical and never insulting to the viewer's intelligence. Season 2 was based around the flight crash and gave glimpses of it in the intros to several episodes throughout season 2, so the whole season has this sense of a complete story arc and that a plan was designed and followed accordingly (with brilliant results). For season 3, Vince Gilligan said that they didn't have a specific plan for the overall story of season 3 and would just wing it a lot of times. They would posit a scenario, discuss it, and then write it if it made sense and wasn't too obvious in terms of the audience's expectations. As a result, the season does end on a cliffhanger, but it still told a ridiculously compelling story that always subverted/surpassed expectations. When a show has a specific plan to follow, there can be a lot of wheel-spinning involved in the mid-season episodes because they know the destination, but can't get there until the final or penultimate episode whereas in a season where you're not working to get to one specific point in the story, you can do whatever you want. One of the many reasons that Breaking Bad is the best show on television.

- I think I've seen maybe two movies from the 2010 movie season and already have a contender for worst film of the year, The Wolfman. I normally don't waste my time on generic Hollywood crap that gets poor reviews, but for some bizarre reason, I was mildly curious about this one. That'll teach me to go outside my comfort zone. I routinely see over 100 films released in each year and generally don't have an epic list of shitty movies I had to sit through. The reason being I don't need to see some generic romantic comedy starring Kate Hudson or yet another animated film by anyone other than Pixar to know it won't be worth my time. If the reviews are particularly strong, I'll give it a chance, but that never happens. There's a formula and they stick to it. They have no reason to change b/c people keep shelling out money for it and I think people are happy with what they get, they want the predictable plots and unrealistic scenarios with a happy ending, it's very simple. Anyway, I won't be doing that again anytime soon. I'll stick with my Hungarian internal dramas about domestic strife thank you very much.

- Finally, I mentioned Rescue Me earlier and for the record, it has been my first summer project. Last Summer, I tackled The Wire and Weeds to try and move a step closer to complete and utter TV series domination. It was a pretty sweet deal watching the greatest series ever made in The Wire so while Rescue Me isn't nearly the coup that David Simon's masterpiece was, it's still been a worthy induction. Overall, it's a show that alternates between fantastic and pointless. What starts out as a brutally honest examination of what it means to be a "man", let alone a New York fire fighter, in the modern day world, can sometimes unfortunately devolve into a meandering mess (i.e. season 4). The saving graces of the show are Denis Leary's Tommy Gavin as an interesting character study, the refreshingly frank approach to a post-911 world, and the casual firehouse banter between all of the main characters. Could do without the Scrubs-like end of episode montages accompanied by music, the endless number of dangling plot threads without closure (not a dealbreaker, but my god, are the same people responsible for writing this show?), and the general misogyny as every woman seems to only be there to be batshit crazy and/or there to lust after Tommy with insatiable fervor. All that being said, it's still a very compelling show with terrific performances and very moving moments. It won't go down as one of the greats, but definitely will file under the "fascinating, but flawed" category. Despite its flaws, it's surely a notch above the average series and worth exploring. I'm glad I'm catching it before it's over.

Coming Soon: Best TV characters that are not "main characters" and the Top Ten of 2009. Followed by the top 10 (or maybe 20?) of the decade (super psyched for that one).

Sunday, June 06, 2010

Think Again

Fucking awesome promo from a damn good show. Just wanted to share.

Sunday, May 09, 2010

May 2010 TV Power Rankings

Just for grins, let's do some tv power rankings, yeah! Keep in mind, I'm only including shows I'm currently watching. I figured it was a good time to get some of these in under the wire as many of them are about to go off the air for the summer.

10) Justified - What started off as a strong pilot has quickly descended into crime of the week material. While well done, I'm not interested in watching a show that could very easily be renamed, U.S. Marshals: The Crazy Misadventures of Raylan Givens. Much better when it focuses on the serialized aspects of the show, but still may have to be dropped from the DVR come next season if it doesn't take some significant strides towards making me not view it as a parasite on my recorded list.

9) 30 Rock - Still good for some of the best one-liners on television, I'm beginning to wonder if the ascension of Parks and Recreation is a detriment to 30 Rock's effectiveness. It used to just be the hour-long block of The Office and 30 Rock, but now it's a full 2 hours and since Community has actually started being, ya know, FUNNY recently, I think I may just be worn out by the time 8:30 rolls around. I'm not a machine.

8) Community - While I still don't love how this show is basically a live action version of Family Guy with its barrage of pop culture references being passed off as humor, the Goodfellas homage was brilliant. The supporting characters still aren't funny enough, but I actually laughed quite a bit over the past 3 episodes, so maybe there's hope for you yet, kid.

7) The Office - Let's be fair to The Office. This hasn't been its most consistent season (whether we're talking storylines or humor), but while we bemoan how one of the greatest shows in the history of television is not reaching the bar, let's keep in mind that without The Office, there would be no bar. The last few episodes have been more vintage Office so let's end the season strong, regroup and come back next year back in the zone.

6) Modern Family - This has probably been tv's most consistent comedy over the past 7 months or so. Rare is the occasion that I watch an episode of Modern Family and walk away feeling unfulfilled. I've been very pleased/impressed with this show's first season as the writers already seem to have a very good grip on the characters and the humor they can derive from those characters. That's a rare thing for any show in its first season.

5) Treme - The latest show from that ever brilliant, irascible critic of the institution of "America", David Simon. Despite the lack of a central driving narrative, I've found myself quite engrossed in Treme. Of course it's well written and well-acted and while the themes are strong and apparent, there still isn't any sort of logical endpoint. Or maybe that's the idea. I'll have to see where this is all going, but so far, I'm really enjoying the ride. And hey David, the more Wire cameos you wanna throw in, I'm good with it.

4) Parks and Recreation - If we're looking for the new king of NBC Thursday nights, you're looking at it. I was worried after the first season, but this show has really found its footing. Excellent writing with a great cast and even slight hints of genuinely affecting human connections, reminds me of another NBC Thursday night juggernaut. Oh look, both shows written by the same people, NO WAY. Maybe that's what it is, the writers are using all their "A" material on Parks & Rec leaving The Office to sift through the scraps.

3) LOST - While this has been a season full of memorably fantastic episodes on par with anything LOST has ever done, it's almost impossible to properly grade this season without seeing where it ends up. I guess for now, all that matters is that we get compelling, edge of your seat television and that's exactly what we've gotten.

2) The Pacific - While it's not quite on par with Band of Brothers, The Pacific sure has been one deliriously hardcore abomination of the senses. While BoB seemed to focus more on the bond formed between soldiers to get through war, The Pacific definitely doesn't sugarcoat any aspect of war, opting instead to show every horrific scenario as well as the toll it takes on your soul. Not for the faint of heart, but worth it if you can handle it.

1) Breaking Bad - Who the fuck do you think you are BB? Are you trying to unseat Mad Men as my favorite show on television? Thought you were so cool with how great season 2 was and how it ended, but that just wasn't enough was it? This is the time, ladies and gentlemen, that we should just take the time to smell the roses and thank whatever divine being allowed us to be conscious while we witness the ongoing evolution of one of the best shows I've ever seen. I didn't think it could get much better than season 2, but I guess BB is in the business of showing me who's daddy.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

2005 Redux

A quick note about 2005. As I diligently studied the archives, I noticed that I've actually bothered to go back and revisit some of these films recently so it creates an interesting dichotomy. On one hand, there are the films that I've re-watched recently so I feel like I'm on pretty firm ground with how I view them and then there are ones that I haven't seen maybe even since I initially watched them, therefore in some ways this list represents a romanticized view of some films and a more pragmatic view of others. In part, that's why I'm doing these lists that revisit my initial rankings. In some bizarre way, I feel that quantifying the ephemeral and impulsive reactions of the first editions versus the more reflective, resilient impressions of the present along with my own growth as an individual and critic will somehow be enlightening. Or maybe I'm just bored.

2005 (Original List):

10) Grizzly Man
9) The New World
8) Walk the Line
7) Mysterious Skin
6) Match Point
5) Oldboy
4) 40 Year Old Virgin
3) Munich
2) 2046
1) Brokeback Mountain

Now here's my 2005 List if I were to write it today:

10) Good Night and Good Luck
9) Grizzly Man
8) Mysterious Skin
7) Munich
6) Match Point
5) 2046
4) 40 Year Old Virgin
3) Oldboy
2) Brokeback Mountain
1) Head-On

Observations:

- Not a whole lot of movement with the exception of a film previously not even on the list vaulting to number 1, but I'll get to that. Grizzly Man remains one of the more compelling documentaries in recent memory and my opinion of Good Night and Good Luck was such that it warranted some representation in the top 10. Hard to deny that this is a solid top ten with a good variety of memorable films.

- Mysterious Skin, Match Point, and 40 Year Old Virgin all maintain a relatively firm grasp on their respective positions. It speaks to the overall strength of the top ten 10 that films like that are filling out the top ten rather headlining. Speaking of, I need to watch Match Point again. I recall it as being an extremely well written morality play with a healthy dash of nihilism to boot, my kind of stuff and I want to see if it holds up in the flesh as well as it does in my mind's eye.

-Some might draw the conclusion that I've soured on Munich, how else to explain such a precipitous drop? It's actually not that complicated. I only saw it once and that was when it first came out. I still have a great deal of respect for it, but when I think of it, I don't feel it having as much of a lasting impact as those in front of it.

- Conversely, Oldboy made quite the jump. It's only fair. I re-watched it recently and man, talk about a film that kicks your ass. How Park Chan-Wook was able to distill the poisonous, soul-crushing nature of bloody vengeance into such a compelling, thrilling piece of cinema, I'll never know. All films are not created equal, but gearing your themes to work in concert with a compelling story is a good start.

- I recently saw a film called The Edge of Heaven by a young Turkish-German filmmaker by the name of Fatih Akin. I thought The Edge of Heaven was a very good film, so like I do with every film I watch, I did some more research and digging. I noticed that one of his earlier films sounded vaguely familiar and after noticing that it got some pretty good reviews, I decided to give Head-On a shot. Holy shit. I don't know what I expected, but I didn't expect to experience one of the most kinetic, edgy, heartbreaking love stories I've ever seen. Think True Romance without over the top ridiculousness (or...irony, maybe?) and that gives you a vague idea, but it's best to just experience Head-On for yourself. A strong bet to land in my top ten of the decade. It might be a top 20, I haven't decided yet. Either way, the Head-On contingent will be well represented.

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Oscars: The Aftermath

One way to know you're a sick, sick human being: you still watch all 4 hours of an awards show to which you already know all the results and highlights. To be fair, I didn't plan on watching the damn behemoth even though I had recorded it. I guess morbid curiosity got the best of me b/c I decided to just take a glimpse at the opening monologue and to catch Neil Patrick Harris' opening number, then before I knew it, I was sucked in. I'm like Michael Corleone in The Godfather III or a participant in a game of "just the tip" (just to see if I like it). I know better than to play JTT with the Academy, damn it all. Here are some random thoughts and observations:

- Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin did a solid job, especially Steve Martin. I did think having the two of them was unnecessary and didn't really add anything that Martin couldn't handle himself, but it was still better than having Whoopi or Wolverine host.

- The John Hughes tribute was absolutely ludicrous. Look, I get the fact that this generation and the previous generation have a special affinity for John Hughes related productions (to be fair, the guy isn't as prolific as everyone claims, he's only directed like 8 movies). I think by and large, they are ridiculously overrated and silly, passable entertainment at best, but I understand his movies are popular. But for the Academy to single him out and make a huge production over his death is insane. He made some movies that people like, but it's not like they're influential or helped change the game in any way. We're not talking about Kurosawa here. I'm sorry, but if people like Paul Newman, Marlon Brando, and Eric Rohmer merely get mentions during the generic "In Memoriam" segment, then you can never convince me that John freaking Hughes deserves to be singled out. I can't wait to see what the Academy does when Chris Columbus dies.

- Most Awesomely Oblivious Speech Award goes to Mo'Nique. I'll quote it for those who missed it: "First I'd like to thank the Academy for showing that it can be about the performance and not the politics." **cue rapturous applause** Then a sentence or two later, she name drops Tyler Perry and Oprah Winfrey for "touching" the film. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No politics my ass! Yeah, let's get two of only the richest, most influential pop culture icons in this country behind our little project, no politiking there! What a dolt. I haven't even seen Precious and this just makes me want to hate it.

- Big shoutout to Roger Ross Williams and Elinor Burkett for providing the evening's most uncomfortable moment during their acceptance for the Best Documentary Short award. I swear there had to be at least a fleeting thought of a sweet chokeslam going through Williams' mind when Burkett shoved him aside to give a speech. He had perfect position on her, I don't know why he didn't take advantage. The best part is that the most dramatic acceptances always come from people who direct these short films and not a single person other than those who are directly involved with them could give a fuck less. It's just awesome. Here's the clip in case you missed it.



- As far as the awards themselves go, it went about as I expected. I scored 15 out of 21, not bad, but not great either. The screenplay awards are what fucked me up. I underestimated the love for both The Hurt Locker and Precious. Also, cinematography for Avatar? Seriously?

- And what did I tell you about Best Foreign Film? Total friggin' crapshoot. I've done some more research on the voting process for that particular category and I'm curious to see how I'll do next year knowing what I know now.

- And didn't I say to look to Best Editing to get an idea of who's going to win the big prize? Damn, all this foresight...it's my cross to bear.

- One thing I will say about THL winning so big is that it's encouraging for a film that is definitely not the stereotypical "Oscar bait" to take home the big prize. Another interesting thing about THL is that it wasn't some manufactured Oscar winner that was created with the gold statue in mind to be released in December and given a $65 million Oscar marketing campaign. It was first screened in Italy in 2008 for chrissakes and really only gained steam through word of mouth and excellent critical response. I just appreciate the whole grass-roots effort.

- Another thing about the Academy that I feel is misappropriated is that they only choose certain types of films to win Best Picture. This can be the case sometimes and it certainly has proven itself true throughout the history of the ceremony, but in recent memory, they're really starting to take some chances and go with more daring work. Within the past few years, we've had The Departed, Million Dollar Baby, No Country For Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Hurt Locker all win Best Picture. Your mileage may vary on how good you think those films are, but you can't say they are typical Oscar bait. So, good for you, Academy.

- Oh and based on Jeff Bridges' acceptance speech, he wasn't doing a whole lot of "acting" in The Big Lebowski it seems. Good for him.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Oscar Time!

Jimmy Page. Pete Townshend. Edge. I now know the burden that other legendary rock guitarists have had to shoulder for so long. Balancing the obligations of your personal passion projects and being a rock god is no easy task. I say this because for the first time in years, I will be unable to do the live Oscar blog commentary that I love so very much and look forward to every year. I have to play a show at Rocbar tonight (doors at 9, $5, cheap drink specials!!) so I won't even be able to watch the Oscars live, let alone provide the half-drunken ramblings we've all become so accustomed to on this holy night each year. Nonetheless, that's not gonna stop me from posting my predictions. Some might recall that I had a pretty good batting average last year (17 for 21), it may have been a personal best, so I'm hoping to beat that this year and I think I have a decent shot at it considering most of the major categories are slam dunks. And much like last year, the Oscars this year leave much to be desired. Last year, I had Mickey Rourke to pull for and I don't even think I have anything like that this year, so if there was a good year to miss the Oscars, this may be it, lucky me.

I just don't feel the overall landscape of films being "honored" is very strong at all and I will go ahead and admit that there is a sizable chunk of these films that I have yet to see, but I've been around the block enough to know that I don't need to see The Blind Side to already know I'll be annoyed by it. See? It's that easy. Ironically enough, I'm way ahead of the curve at this point in terms of how many 2009 films I've seen than I normally am at this time of year for viewing the previous year's films (I just don't go to the theater much, times they are a-changin'), but most of them just happen to not be Oscar bait. We may even see a Top Ten of 2009 sometime in the summer! You heard it here first, Christmas could come in July so stay tuned.

Ok, on with the predictions and then I'll probably throw out some random nuggets below that.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique - Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind"
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Foreign Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

- Okay let's start at the top. The big prize appears to be a two horse race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar, but keep in mind that the voting process is different this year. There are ten nominees (which was done in an effort to generate more mainstream interest since most people only watch films that are distributed on 3,000 screens or more...fuckin' degenerates) this year and the voters were told to rank them one through ten. Which means that even if a film gets the most number one votes, it could still lose. This paves the way for a dark horse like Inglourious Basterds to sneak through, but I just don't see it. I'm gonna go with The Hurt Locker and I'm okay with that, it's a very good film.

- All of the major acting categories are pretty much foregone conclusions with the minor exception being Best Actress, but even then, as much as I hate the idea of living in a world where Ms. Congeniality is an Oscar winner, I still think it's hers to lose. Gross.

- The screenplay awards are interesting b/c screenplay is usually where Oscar voters take the opportunity to reward a film that they felt was good, but not good enough to win Best Picture (i.e. Sideways, Lost in Translation, etc.). And in this case, since the potential Best Picture winners aren't winning on the merits of the writing necessarily, that opens the door for two films to be given their consolation prizes. I think the Academy really likes Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air and while neither is a lock, I think these two are highly regarded enough to get the second tier prizes.

- I say it every year so by this point, I hope you've all learned a thing or two, but what do I always say about Best Editing? If you have a close race and want to get a good indicator as to who might have the edge, look to editing. If THL wins editing, I think it's a safe bet, but if not, watch out b/c the James Cameron pain train may be coming to your television sets worldwide.

- Costume Design this year is a little tricky b/c one of my other Oscar rules of thumb is when in doubt, go with the period pieces. However, this year we have two of them in The Young Victoria and Bright Star. Cheeky bastards! So I dug a little deeper and found that TYV won the Costume Designers Guild award. Plus, TYV has more lush extravagant costumes while Bright Star is a little more toned down given the subject matter. If I were to do power rankings of Oscar categories, I'd say Costume Design is moving up the charts in recent years in my estimation. I think I need help.

- Cinematography is very tough this year. I went with THL hoping that the intense camerawork and some minor coattailing would help push it over the top. However, The White Ribbon has gotten lots of love for its exquisite black and white cinematography (never underestimate the influence of b&w on voters!!) and then there's a little film called Avatar lurking in the background, so everyone needs to watch the fuck out. This could get bloody.

- Makeup is very tough as I see it between The Young Victoria and Star Trek. I may have gone with Star Trek as a sentimental favorite, but not too sentimental, I mean just look at it, it's all makeup, duh! Plus, it was critically acclaimed and generally well loved so I think it has a good shot, but we're still looking at a photo finish.

- Sound Mixing and Editing frustrates the living shit out of me. I point you to Exhibit A, last year at the Oscars when The Dark Knight won Best Sound Editing and Slumdog won Best Sound Mixing. Huh? Someone explain that to me. I picked Avatar for both this year because I feel that if there's one thing the Academy is going to reward for that film, it'll be its technical achievements. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see it win one and have THL win the other. Oscar is a bitch like that.

- Foreign Film is tough every year because it's the one category that the Academy actually has to watch every film in order to be eligible to vote. The White Ribbon has been critically lauded and been winning awards all over the globe, but then again, it is a Michael Haneke film, not exactly the most accessible filmmaker on the planet. Ajami, Un Prophete, and El Secreto de Sus Ojos all have legitimate shots at the award. It's borderline impossible to predict, just look as recently as last year when Japan's Departures came out of nowhere to break up the heavyweight fight between The Class and Waltz with Bashir. This is one category that is definitely NOT a popularity contest.

- I hear some SeaWorld orcas will be in attendance to accept the Best Documentary Award for The Cove on behalf of slaughtered dolphins around the world. Thanks, I'll be here all week.