Oscar Time!

Jimmy Page. Pete Townshend. Edge. I now know the burden that other legendary rock guitarists have had to shoulder for so long. Balancing the obligations of your personal passion projects and being a rock god is no easy task. I say this because for the first time in years, I will be unable to do the live Oscar blog commentary that I love so very much and look forward to every year. I have to play a show at Rocbar tonight (doors at 9, $5, cheap drink specials!!) so I won't even be able to watch the Oscars live, let alone provide the half-drunken ramblings we've all become so accustomed to on this holy night each year. Nonetheless, that's not gonna stop me from posting my predictions. Some might recall that I had a pretty good batting average last year (17 for 21), it may have been a personal best, so I'm hoping to beat that this year and I think I have a decent shot at it considering most of the major categories are slam dunks. And much like last year, the Oscars this year leave much to be desired. Last year, I had Mickey Rourke to pull for and I don't even think I have anything like that this year, so if there was a good year to miss the Oscars, this may be it, lucky me.

I just don't feel the overall landscape of films being "honored" is very strong at all and I will go ahead and admit that there is a sizable chunk of these films that I have yet to see, but I've been around the block enough to know that I don't need to see The Blind Side to already know I'll be annoyed by it. See? It's that easy. Ironically enough, I'm way ahead of the curve at this point in terms of how many 2009 films I've seen than I normally am at this time of year for viewing the previous year's films (I just don't go to the theater much, times they are a-changin'), but most of them just happen to not be Oscar bait. We may even see a Top Ten of 2009 sometime in the summer! You heard it here first, Christmas could come in July so stay tuned.

Ok, on with the predictions and then I'll probably throw out some random nuggets below that.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique - Precious
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature: Up
Best Original Score: Up
Best Original Song: Crazy Heart - "The Weary Kind"
Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
Best Art Direction: Avatar
Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
Best Makeup: Star Trek
Best Sound Mixing: Avatar
Best Sound Editing: Avatar
Best Visual Effects: Avatar
Best Foreign Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary Feature: The Cove

- Okay let's start at the top. The big prize appears to be a two horse race between The Hurt Locker and Avatar, but keep in mind that the voting process is different this year. There are ten nominees (which was done in an effort to generate more mainstream interest since most people only watch films that are distributed on 3,000 screens or more...fuckin' degenerates) this year and the voters were told to rank them one through ten. Which means that even if a film gets the most number one votes, it could still lose. This paves the way for a dark horse like Inglourious Basterds to sneak through, but I just don't see it. I'm gonna go with The Hurt Locker and I'm okay with that, it's a very good film.

- All of the major acting categories are pretty much foregone conclusions with the minor exception being Best Actress, but even then, as much as I hate the idea of living in a world where Ms. Congeniality is an Oscar winner, I still think it's hers to lose. Gross.

- The screenplay awards are interesting b/c screenplay is usually where Oscar voters take the opportunity to reward a film that they felt was good, but not good enough to win Best Picture (i.e. Sideways, Lost in Translation, etc.). And in this case, since the potential Best Picture winners aren't winning on the merits of the writing necessarily, that opens the door for two films to be given their consolation prizes. I think the Academy really likes Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air and while neither is a lock, I think these two are highly regarded enough to get the second tier prizes.

- I say it every year so by this point, I hope you've all learned a thing or two, but what do I always say about Best Editing? If you have a close race and want to get a good indicator as to who might have the edge, look to editing. If THL wins editing, I think it's a safe bet, but if not, watch out b/c the James Cameron pain train may be coming to your television sets worldwide.

- Costume Design this year is a little tricky b/c one of my other Oscar rules of thumb is when in doubt, go with the period pieces. However, this year we have two of them in The Young Victoria and Bright Star. Cheeky bastards! So I dug a little deeper and found that TYV won the Costume Designers Guild award. Plus, TYV has more lush extravagant costumes while Bright Star is a little more toned down given the subject matter. If I were to do power rankings of Oscar categories, I'd say Costume Design is moving up the charts in recent years in my estimation. I think I need help.

- Cinematography is very tough this year. I went with THL hoping that the intense camerawork and some minor coattailing would help push it over the top. However, The White Ribbon has gotten lots of love for its exquisite black and white cinematography (never underestimate the influence of b&w on voters!!) and then there's a little film called Avatar lurking in the background, so everyone needs to watch the fuck out. This could get bloody.

- Makeup is very tough as I see it between The Young Victoria and Star Trek. I may have gone with Star Trek as a sentimental favorite, but not too sentimental, I mean just look at it, it's all makeup, duh! Plus, it was critically acclaimed and generally well loved so I think it has a good shot, but we're still looking at a photo finish.

- Sound Mixing and Editing frustrates the living shit out of me. I point you to Exhibit A, last year at the Oscars when The Dark Knight won Best Sound Editing and Slumdog won Best Sound Mixing. Huh? Someone explain that to me. I picked Avatar for both this year because I feel that if there's one thing the Academy is going to reward for that film, it'll be its technical achievements. However, I wouldn't be surprised to see it win one and have THL win the other. Oscar is a bitch like that.

- Foreign Film is tough every year because it's the one category that the Academy actually has to watch every film in order to be eligible to vote. The White Ribbon has been critically lauded and been winning awards all over the globe, but then again, it is a Michael Haneke film, not exactly the most accessible filmmaker on the planet. Ajami, Un Prophete, and El Secreto de Sus Ojos all have legitimate shots at the award. It's borderline impossible to predict, just look as recently as last year when Japan's Departures came out of nowhere to break up the heavyweight fight between The Class and Waltz with Bashir. This is one category that is definitely NOT a popularity contest.

- I hear some SeaWorld orcas will be in attendance to accept the Best Documentary Award for The Cove on behalf of slaughtered dolphins around the world. Thanks, I'll be here all week.