Oscars 2007!

It is 3:37pm CST as I type this and we're merely hours away from my own personal Super Bowl, the Academy Awards! Tonight is the culmination of all my hard earned hours sitting on my ass watching film after film, did I mention how much I love Netflix? I'm actually way ahead of the curve this year. As evidenced by a top ten of 2005 posted in September, I usually don't see everything I need to see until late in the year, but this year, I've seen almost every film nominated for anything and I only have about 20 films left from the 2006 slate to see so I expect to post a top ten of 2006 much sooner than I did for 2005. As I'm sure I'll mention numerous times tonight, I'm not as excited as I normally am. Of the major categories, everything is pretty much a foregone conclusion except for Best Picture, which oddly enough, is wide open. After that, all of the smaller and/or more technical categories are damn near impossible to predict b/c there isn't a Titanic-esque juggernaut this year to sweep a big chunk of those awards. This probably means the Academy members had to actually think for themselves when voting, perish the thought! Either way, I've done pretty well with my predictions the past few years (sans that whole Crash winning best picture part, but I wasn't the only one floored by that...look, I can't control if people are stupid, it can be very hard to predict), but I'm thinking this year, I'm gonna suck major ass. Regardless, I have an almost full bottle of rum, I got plenty of sleep, I got the live feed of the show right next to my computer, and a satchel full of wit, so prepare that ass! I'll be back in a little while to post my predictions well before the broadcast actually starts so you'll know if I'm cheating or not.

--5:20pm CST: I guess I should go ahead and post my predictions. On one hand, I like knowing I'm going to get the majority right. It makes me feel like I know something about this and plus, who enjoys being wrong? On the other hand, it makes the ceremony kind of exciting when no one has a clue who will win what (for the most part) because whichever film begins racking up the smaller awards early on is usually indication of things to come and if every film is winning something here or there, it makes the whole process entirely unpredictable. And if the ceremony is roughly 4 hours long, a little excitement definitely couldn't hurt. Anyway, on with it.

Best Picture: Babel - I say this with no authority whatsoever. There are rumblings of a groundswell of support for Little Miss Sunshine, but Hollywood likes to feel important and Babel definitely scratches that itch for the narcissism capital of the world. That'd be fine by me because I think it's an excellent film, but I will shit myself if The Departed wins. I doubt it will because genre gangster films never ever win (unless it's The Godfather), but ya never know, it was the most acclaimed film of the year, but I doubt it.

Best Director: Martin Scorsese (The Departed) - I feel good about this one and it's about damn time. Inarritu has an outside chance for Babel, but it's finally good ol' Marty's to lose.

Best Actor: Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland) - He has won every precursor imaginable and he is damn good in Last King, but if I were choosing, it'd be Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, but the Academy will go for Whitaker's more histrionic performance and that's fine.

Best Actress: Helen Mirren (The Queen) - If you don't think she's going to win, you're stupid. Go home.

Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls) - Of course Norbit is going to win a category in which he is the worst of the 5 nominees. I'm so fucking sick of people falling all over themselves whenever a comedic actor does a competent job in a dramatic role. Murphy is fine in Dreamgirls, but nothing more. I would be ecstatic if anyone other than him won, but I think Gumbi's got it, unfortunately. Only person who really has a chance to upset him is Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine. However, if Marky Mark somehow wins for The Departed, I'll be so excited I might throw Pants off the balcony.

Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls) - I'm ok with this one. Hudson is a dynamo and definitely the highlight of the film and the Academy could definitely do a lot worse. It'd be kickass if either of the women from Babel won, but I have a feeling they'll split the vote unless the Academy decides to cull their support for one of the girls in particular, a la Steven Soderbergh winning Director in 2001.

Best Original Screenplay: Babel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Departed
Best Animated Feature: Cars
Best Original Score: Babel
Best Original Song: Dreamgirls - "Listen"
Best Editing: Babel
Best Cinematography: Children of Men (just thought I'd add, this film has some of best sequences I've ever seen...like ever, go see it if you haven't already, it'll tear you a new one)
Best Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Costume Design: Dreamgirls
Best Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Best Sound Editing: Letters From Iwo Jima
Best Visual Effects: Pirates of Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Best Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth
Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth

So I'm predicting Babel to come away with 4 wins, I really think the support for this film is stronger than people are choosing to acknowledge. Also, 5 wins for Dreamgirls. It didn't get nominated for best picture, but it did lead all films with 8 nominations so clearly, Hollywood has plenty of love for it. And I don't predict the worthless, oh I'm sorry, short subject categories because I, nor anyone else, could give a fuck less who wins.

--7:00pm CST:

• Did I mention how much I am dreading the fact that Ellen freaking DeGeneres is hosting this year? Gotta love that the thinking behind that choice. Hey, who is the most unfunny, irritating person we can find to host the Oscars this year?! Rosie O'Donnell? No, she's booked up. Oh well, next best thing is Ellen DeGeneres, she's almost as irritating. Deal!
• Is Naomi Watts pregnant? Alright, I want names dammit. Someone's gonna get a swift kick in the ass.
• I never thought I'd say this, but I think Ryan Seacrest does a decent job. E-television is normally intolerable when it comes to the red carpet stuff, but getting rid of Joan Rivers was a logical way to improve the show. I just had no idea that Ryan Seacrest of all people would do a pretty good job, which basically means I don't wanna kill him.
• The costume designer for The Devil Wears Prada is pretty fucking gross.
• Beyonce looks A-OK. She's pretty much the complete opposite of the aforementioned Prada costume designer.
• It makes me sick that Babel keeps getting compared to Crash. I mean, I understand if someone doesn't find Babel to be a great film, but you can't deny that it's well made. Whereas, Crash was so incompetently made, it still floors me that anyone can think it's a well-made or even good film. The only thing they have in common are multiple, intersecting storylines, THAT'S IT. Ok, I'll do my best to not mention Crash anymore tonight (geez, get over it).
• Penelope Cruz has gargantuan ears.
• Doesn't Will Smith seem like the coolest guy ever? He's as affable off-screen as he is on-screen.
• Jesus Christ, did Cameron Diaz fall into coma while on the tanning bed?

--7:43pm CST:

• Djimon Hounsou may be the coolest looking guy out there. And Steve Carrell does deadpan as well as anyone I've ever seen, God bless him.
• The ever exciting art direction award goes to Pan's Labyrinth. 1 for 1. I'll also take this opportunity to say that The Prestige is a fine film and should be nominated for more than it is.
• Ok good, let's get the technical bullshit ceremony montage out of the way. They should group all of the worthless montages and honorary awards that everyone uses for bathroom/smoke breaks into one 30 second mention during the pre-show. That way, no one ever has to feign interest.
• LOL, this show is fucking ridiculous. How necessary was it for those people to contort their bodies so that they form the shape of the Oscar statuette? Self indulgence is not in short supply, what a shock.

--8:23pm CST:

• For so much the Academy gets wrong, thank God they have someone really smart telling them to have some combination of Will Ferrell/Jack Black/Ben Stiller, etc. sing or do something really stupid at every ceremony. Having John C. Reilly was just a bonus.
• Having Will Smith's kid and Abigail Breslin present the shorts is cute, but superfluous. Why on earth can't these categories be yoked in with that pseudo-award ceremony for tech stuff?
• For all the extraneous bullshit the Academy includes in these things, I take some perverse enjoyment in the little segments they have for each Best Pic nominee. At least it's entertaining, I'm not ashamed!
• Oh yeah, I'm 2 for 2. Both awards for Pan's Labyrinth. Both were expected and not really an indication of things to come. I still can't believe that movie was so highly acclaimed across the board. Its technical merits are unquestioned, which is why it's winning these awards, but the writing is so pedestrian, it's almost like everyone was blinded by the more aesthetic elements of the film.
• A sound effects choir. Why? WHY??!?! It's impressive that they can even do this, but I wonder if it ever occurred to them while doing this, that they have the most unnecessary, ridiculous occupation in the history of planet Earth.
• Alright, 3 for 3 with that win for Sound Editing. I was a little unsure with this one, so I'm glad I got it. It's good to pad my stats b/c I'm sure it'll all come crumbling down later.
• 4 for 4. Damn I'm good. If you ever need someone to predict a sound mixing award or an art direction award, I'm your man.
• Ok here we go, best supporting actor. I had no idea they were presenting this so early. Well there is a God. Eddie Murphy was the frontrunner, but I you can quote me, I did say that Alan Arkin was the darkhorse. 4 for 5 now. This bodes well for Little Miss Sunshine. Good for Arkin, terrific actor and the best thing about that film.

--9:23pm CST:

• Goddammit, fucking Happy Feet?! I guess Hollywood's not too keen on Pixar these days. I'm 4 for 6. See? Pride cometh before the fall. It's ok. Time to recover, let's rattle off a string of correct guesses.
• Nice. William Monahan for The Departed winning screenplay is just. 5 for 7. I didn't think this one was too hard to predict, but ya never know. I like that method of presenting screenplay. The montage was a bit unnecessary and it was kinda long-winded, but interesting nonetheless.
• Guess I underestimated the love for Dreamgirls. About the only thing impressive about Marie Antoinette was the costume design and given it's tepid reception I didn't think it had a chance, but I guess the Academy was able to recognize one its few admirable traits. 5 for 8 now.
• This is fucking ridiculous. No way in hell did Pan's Labyrinth have the best cinematography, not even close. Children of Men was groundbreaking. That movie's greatness comes in large part from its cinematography. What a farce, fuck this shit. I guess the love for PL is pretty strong. 5 for 9.
• Need to lighten your mood? I know I do after that bogus award. Here comes ol' RDJ to the rescue. Self-deprecating humor involving your past drug addiction is just what the doctor ordered. Either way, the cinematography in CoM is the kind of stuff that will be studied in film schools in the future. It is groundbreaking, mesmerizing stuff. This seems like a classic case of the Academy not having seen the film widely enough or they just have their collective heads up their asses. Neither would surprise me.
• Pirates of the Caribbean wins best visual FX, how cute. 6 for 10.

--10:02pm CST:

• Is there anyone on this planet who is cooler than Clive Owen? He looks like he just walked off the set of Children of Men (can you tell? I kinda liked that movie).
• Wow, props to Will for calling it. Pan's Labyrinth didn't win best foreign film somehow. It's widely acclaimed and winning everything it's nominated for, but not for best foreign film. This may imply that it's more admired technically than loved, which makes sense because I've been utterly shocked by its near universal acclaim. 6 for 11, I suck.
• Time for best supporting actress. I have a feeling I got this one right. Ok, I'm not a total dumbshit. Good for her, she was fantastic, best thing about Dreamgirls. 7 for 12.
• Yay, another who gives a shit award handed out. This time for documentary short subject. At what point in time did anyone say they cared about categories like this? I mean, did they try to do away with them at one point, but then the masses objected and clamored for the glorious return of the short films?
• Best documentary was pretty much a foregone conclusion with An Inconvenient Truth. 8 for 13.
  
• Ah yes, the honorary awards are always good for a smoke break.

--10:57pm CST:

• Babel winning best score bodes well for the film. 9 for 14. God this is a long telecast.
• Alright, original screenplay, something of substance for once. If anything, but Little Miss
  Sunshine wins, you can kiss its chances of best pic goodbye. If it does win, it means it's still alive and has a chance at the big prize. Well, there we go. I almost changed this prediction at the last minute to LMS, but I decided to go with my initial choice. What's the lesson, kids? I have no idea. It's a crapshoot. LMS is still alive and has a good chance at best picture, ugghh. 9 for 15.
• We still got editing and song before the 4 big awards will be handed out. I'm getting a little worried about my pick for best picture considering LMS pulled a significant upset with best supporting actor and a mild upset with original screenplay. Then again, the screenplay award could be the consolation prize that the Academy likes to dole out to films they like, but don't consider good enough for the big prize (i.e. Lost in Translation, Sideways, etc.).
• I had a feeling Melissa was gonna get best song, but every prognosticator said Dreamgirls so I went with that. That's the last time I listen to experts! (probably not) 9 for 16.
• Is Kate Winslet ever not gorgeous? Sam Mendes is wayyy luckier than he realizes. Ok film editing, c'mon Babel, don't make me look bad. Ok so Thelma Schoonmaker won and that is fucking awesome. One of the best editors ever. I was wrong and this doesn't bode well for Babel, but I don't care. If it means The Departed wins, I'm all for it. 9 for 17.
• We got the 4 big ones to go. Helen Mirren winning was the most sure thing of the night. If I got that wrong, I would have killed myself. 10 for 18.

--11:16pm CST:

• I end the night 12 for 21, which is not good, but I've never been more glad to be wrong with the best picture. The Departed is a phenomenal film and definitely the best of the ones nominated. Marty finally won, damn good ending to the evening. Much better than last year for goddamn sure. In the words of Trey Parker, The Departed! Fuck yeah!