Oscars 2008

I can't believe that Christmas...er...the Oscars are already upon us! Many wonder why I make such a big deal out of the Academy Awards since as we all know, it's just a big dog and pony show full of politicking, schlob-nobbin', and of course, upsets and unexplainable choices no doubt fueled by labyrinthine governmental conspiracies. If all this is true, how Jeff, HOW, can you still get so excited over such an affair?! Well, it's pretty simple. As a full-blown, unapologetic cinephile, the Academy Awards is THE night for movies. Whether or not I agree with the standards or the choices is moot because for better or worse, this is the night that the whole world stops and pays attention to Hollywood's big night. It's not going to alter my perception or make me reconsider my favorite films/performances of the year, but everyone in every medium enjoys having that one culminating moment for their vice of choice. In sports, you have championships (and I guess to a lesser extent, individual player awards). In sports, I wish every Houston team (except in college football, WAR EAGLE) made it to every championship and that every Houston player won every accolade possible, but they don't and that's okay. Does that mean I don't love baseball or football? Of course not. The same logic applies for the Oscars. I enjoy reveling in all the overblown hype and self-flagellating that goes on. Some people complain that the telecast usually runs the length of The Seven Samurai, but I don't mind at all. It just gives me more time to make pithy comments and delude myself into thinking I know a thing or two. And if I can make another rum and coke while I'm at it, then who am I to complain? All that being said, it's time to post my predictions and see how I do. Last year, I underestimated the Oscar love for The Departed and overestimated the love for Babel and as a result, I only finished 12 for 21. The year before, if I had known that Memoirs of a Geisha was technically adored, I would have really cleaned up, but even then, I finished with a solid 15 for 21. That goes without mentioning the best picture abomination that was Crash that year, but let's not talk about that. This is a time for happy thoughts. On with the predictions (I don't predict the shorts...do we really need those? Oh yes we do, smoke breaks! I almost forgot.):

Best Picture: No Country for Old Men - I'd say it's almost a sure bet. No complaints here. In fact, I'm kind of excited because for once, I genuinely like all of the films nominated for Best Pic. You're all winners in your own right! But not really, NCFOM is going to be the big winner tonight.

Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) - I guess Paul Thomas Anderson has a small outside shot at this, but I see no reason for the Academy to award him best director over the dynamic duo of Joel and Ethan Coen. Shockingly, the Coen Brothers have only one Oscar to their credit (screenplay for Fargo) and these long respected Hollywood mavericks will get their due. Scary to think that guys like Ron Howard and Paul Haggis have cleaned up at the Oscars while the Coen Brothers continue to churn out excellent film after excellent film while being overlooked. Tonight will be their night and rightfully so.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood) - The biggest guaranteed, undeniable lock of the evening. If I'm wrong on this, you can all give me $50, deal? He deserves it. It's easily the most charismatic, complex, disturbing, dominating, whatever other adjective you wanna throw in here, performance of the year. He's going to drink everyone's milkshake. He IS the third revelation!!

Best Actress: Julie Christie (Away From Her) - Aside from possessing looks that we all hope our wives will have when they're in their late 60s, she's also damn good in this film and is my tentative prediction to win. She has won all the pre-cursors, so I expect a victory. Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose) has a slight outside shot, but put your money on Christie.

Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) - I've felt this was a lock pretty much the whole time until I started hearing murmurs of some sympathy support growing for Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild). Do NOT underestimate the Academy's knack for throwing some curveballs throughout their history. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Holbrook garner a majority vote from the older-skewing Academy, but I don't expect it. I'm still going with ol' Anton Chigurh and his luscious locks. Even though in a perfect world, Casey Affleck would win for layered, emotionally rich performance in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, but that's neither here nor there.

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) - I don't feel good about this at all. In fact, I could see any of the nominees winning with the exception of Saoirse Ronan (Atonement). This is the biggest wild card category, not only this year, but historically. Will they wish to recognize a well-respected veteran actress as a pseudo-lifetime achievement award (Ruby Dee for American Gangster) or will they go with a young up and comer as a sort of initiation as this award been known to be in recent years (Amy Ryan)? Or they could just go with Cate Blanchett. I'll go with Ryan, but very tentatively.

Best Original Screenplay: Juno
Best Adapted Screenplay: No Country for Old Men
Best Animated Feature: Ratatouille
Best Original Score: Ratatouille
Best Original Song: Once - "Falling Slowly"
Best Editing: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Cinematography: There Will Be Blood
Best Art Direction: There Will Be Blood
Best Costume Design: Sweeney Todd
Best Makeup: La Vie en Rose
Best Sound Mixing: Transformers
Best Sound Editing: There Will Be Blood
Best Visual Effects: Transformers
Best Foreign Film: The Counterfeiters
Best Documentary Feature: No End in Sight

So we're looking at 4 wins for NCFOM and 4 wins (more of technical nature) for TWBB. Needless to say, NCFOM looks to come away the big winner of the evening. I'm a little apprehensive that I overestimated the technical admiration for TWBB and Transformers, but this is what it's all about. I have this strange feeling that Sweeney Todd may take away some of the technical awards and that I'm underestimating it, but we'll see. See you for the telecast!

P.S. Jon Stewart, if you steal any of my material again, there will be blood (*rimshot*). I got my eyes on you, sucka.

7:32pm CST:

• I thought Jon Stewart did a pretty good job last time, so I'm hoping for good stuff tonight again too. Assuming he doesn't feel the need to plagiarize my work.
• "Let's take a moment to congratulate ourselves." Has there ever been a more succinct way to describe the Oscars? Good stuff.
• I find Ellen Page kinda hot, is that wrong? I mean, she is 20, I think. She just looks 10, so you can't help but feel bad about it.
• Ok Julie Christie vs. Helen Mirren in a battle royale for senior citizen hotness, who wins? Answer: we all do! God, I love plastic surgery.
• Wow, a lawyer joke. How original.
• Why does the whole world think Jack Nicholson is so cool? I mean, really? What in his body of work is so alarmingly groundbreaking that everyone just loves ol' Jack?
• God I hope Diablo Cody wins b/c she looks like she could be a wild card. Since Philip Seymour Hoffman isn't going to win anything, we need someone to possibly freak out on stage, do something subversive, or at least throw out a cuss word. Something, ANYTHING!
• Good monologue. Gaydolf Titler was the best joke.
• See what I mean? Every year, in some bullshit category, someone unexpectedly wins. I'm 0 for 1 on costume design as Elizabeth: The Golden Age wins. Anyone see that one coming? Didn't think so. At least, my premonition about Sweeney Todd looks to be wrong, so it's not a total loss. Off to a roaring start!

7:50pm CST:

• What a shock. A masturbatory, self-congratulatory montage of its own on its own telecast. And who says the Academy is losing its edge?!
• Steve Carrell is awesome. He needs to be in everything. Ugh, I had to watch Surf's Up on a flight recently, this penguin crap has gone way too far. There we go, back on track. I'm 1 for 2 as Ratatouille wins Best Animated Feature. Brad Bird is a genius. What are his roots in? That's right, The Simpsons. More evidence of its endless contributions to society.
• A sick side of me wants to see Norbit win for Best Makeup. It'd just be hilarious to me that the film that cleaned up at the Razzies is also an Oscar winner. No shot though as La Vie en Rose takes it. 2 for 3 now. This win keeps Cotillard's hopes alive as it proves members of the Academy actually watched it. Or maybe they just couldn't bring themselves to vote for Norbit or another one of those damn Pirates movies.
• Ha ha, they are so quick on that trigger to hurry the speeches up for the unimportant people. Yeah you won for makeup, no one cares about you. You get about 5 seconds, then you're toast!
• I'm a fan of Amy Adams, but if a song like this actually wins Best Song, I'm going to hunt down every member of the Academy and kick them in the balls.

8:19pm CST:

• The actual quality of the film aside, Transformers did have amazing effects and looked spectacular. Okay okay, it's gonna be like that, huh Oscar? 2 for 4 now as The Golden Compass wins for Best Visual Effects. I had no idea anyone saw that movie, good for them. So this really sets everything up as truly unpredictable. No tone is being set yet. This is how the Academy is. You can look at nominees and have the most logical, obvious choice staring you in the face and out of nowhere, they will award the film that NO ONE expected.
• Alright, now time for Art Direction. Does anyone know what this is or how it works? I didn't think so. I completely guessed here. Fuck! I knew I shouldn't have bet against Dante Ferretti, he only gets nominated like every freakin' year. 2 for 5 now. This night is turning out swimmingly.
• Oh! "A refresher course for the history of Best Supporting Actor". Translation: Another excuse to brag about ourselves and give you another montage. I love Cuba's speech, but the best part was that one white guy in the crowd who stood before everyone else and was pumping his fist like, "HELL YEAH!!" What was that guy thinking?
  
• If Javier Bardem doesn't win, I'm quitting. Right now. Casey Affleck deserves it, but he won't win. He is someone to watch, he keeps turning in interesting role after interesting role. Ok Bardem does win, I can continue moving forward in life. 3 for 6 now. Good for him, what a terrific actor.
  

8:51pm CST:

• Alright, another song performance and a short film award. This is a good time to take a nice bath or take in a good book or go for a drive.
• I like how they don't want anyone giving a speech for longer than 12 seconds, but let's make sure we have 30 pointless montages b/c that's really important.
• Okay, here's my big wild card category. It's going to be Ruby Dee, watch. C'mon Amy Ryan, don't make me look stupid. They didn't even nominate the right supporting actress from Atonement, it should have been Romola Garai. Geez, Tilda Swinton, eat a cheeseburger. Ya know what's funny about this. Right as I was writing my predictions, the thought crossed my mind that everyone is focusing on the battle between Ruby Dee, Amy Ryan, and Cate Blanchett, and then it dawned on me that Tilda Swinton has never won an Oscar, despite her sterling reputation. She's a critical darling and complete chameleon of an actress, it would make sense that she could sneak in and win it. Lo and behold, she does. So at least everyone was wrong. I am now a kickass 3 for 7. This will definitely be my best year.
• I don't think I'd like to fight Josh Brolin. Okay, here comes the first win for NCFOM. Of course, don't ever doubt me when I say it's a lock. 4 for 8 now. Good for them. Brilliant filmmakers, they deserve every accolade coming their way. I love how they're so awkward and out of place in the spotlight. These dudes aren't cut out for this crap. They're movie nerds. They just want to make movies they are passionate about, they couldn't care less about the accolades, god bless 'em.
  

9:17pm CST:

• Yes! There is no way to go wrong with Jonah Hill or Seth Rogen, let alone with their forces combined. Best Sound Editing, I have a feeling I got this one wrong. I'm not sensing the love for TWBB. I think its supporters may just be the most vocal, but not the most in number. Of course, I went the experts instead of my gut feeling. The Bourne Ultimatum wins. Now 4 for 9, baby baby! What is the lesson, kids? I have no idea, it's all a crapshoot. This is going downhill fast.
• Here's another category I'm going to get wrong because I was under the impression that people admired the more technical aspects of both TWBB and Transformers. It never fails. Every year, there's one Hollywood blockbuster that cleans up the technical awards. Apparently, The Bourne Ultimatum is that film this year. I'm a stealthy 4 for 10 now. I don't deserve to live.
• God, Halle Berry's speech when she won Best Actress was just brutal, what an idiot. Get a grip. Okay, here we go, this is a big one. Since I've pretty much screwed the pooch here, I want to at least salvage the evening by getting most of the major awards right. C'mon Julie Christie! I will say that Marion Cotillard is the opposite of gross. She's quite awesome. I actually think Ellen Page deserves to win. She's so adept with those lines and incredibly moving, it's definitely my favorite performance of the 5. Well there ya go, apparently enough people saw this. I guess being wrong builds character. 4 for 11 now. I'm gonna go dunk my head in the toilet.
  

9:41pm CST:

• I adored Once. Excellent film and great songs, this song better win dammit. They performed at the Independent Spirit Awards yesterday (different song) and were amazing. Them winning would help spruce up the evening.
• Oh lord, more of the Jack Nicholson love fest. Take your scenery chewing, your ego, and yours Lakers season tickets elsewhere. I guess I'm in a bad mood now.
• No way! Another montage of their own past shows! Who could have predicted that?! Okay, that was totally necessary. A reminder of how many times they've gotten it completely wrong.
• Wouldn't it be ironic for me to get Best Editing wrong after The Bourne Ultimatum has won a slew of other technical awards? I'm sure it'll happen, it's my luck. Thank you, I forgot what it was like to get one right. I had a feeling it was a sure thing since it cleaned up at the Eddies. 5 for 12 now.
• While the old dude talks for an hour, I wanna take this time to reflect a little bit. While it really annoys me that I can't predict every single award, it is part of what's fun about the Academy Awards. It wouldn't be nearly as entertaining if everything was so easily called, that's what makes it so difficult to get all of the categories right. Sometimes we have good surprises, like when Adrien Brody won for Best Actor and sometimes we have bad surprises, like when Crash won for Best Picture. Either way, the element of surprise can't be undervalued as I think it's what makes the whole process exciting. We've seen too many examples of "sure things" only to be sideswiped by a peculiar groundswell of support for one particular film or person. I find it fascinating, even if it can work against me, as it usually does. Alright, let's rally, I stand a chance to get everything else right. Allegedly.

9:56pm CST:

• Best Foreign Film is a good category b/c they have different rules, so everyone who votes has to have seen all 5. The bad thing is they have these weird, bizarre rules for submission. Oh and none were available stateside in 2007. Yeah, makes sense. I picked The Counterfeiters b/c frankly it's the only one I had heard of. Oh, look at that, I got one right that I wasn't sure about. 6 for 13 now.
• Okay, Best Song, this better be "Falling Slowly". This will be one of my few sentimental victories of the night if it wins. Baby Baby! Hell yeah! 7 for 14. Excellent film, excellent song. One of the few happy moments so far.

10:06pm CST:

• Best Cinematography will be interesting considering there seems to be no love for TWBB. What I'm counting on is Roger Deakins will split his own vote between NCFOM and The Assassination For Jesse James... and the highly respected Robert Elswit will come through. Oh look at that, I'm recovering slowly. 8 for 15.
  
• Alright, the dead people montage. Good way to pep up the evening.
  
• Still breaks my heart that Heath Ledger is gone. I had high hopes for that one. At least the Joker looks pretty ridiculous, so it doesn't seem to be the worst swan song in the world.

10:08pm CST:

• Best Score was a total crapshoot for me, so I went with the expert consensus. I had a feeling about Atonement. It was my personal favorite of the scores amongst the nominees, but once again, the experts know nothing. I am now 8 for 16.
  
• Best Documentary is an interesting category. I feel that it comes down to No End in Sight vs. Sicko. I predicted No End b/c of its critical acclaim and b/c Michael Moore is such a divisive figure, even if it is an excellent film (he doesn't make documentaries, he makes films, let's not get confused). My only concern is that people are tired of the Iraq documentaries. While important, there have been so many that they may have a dulling effect. Okay, wow. Yet another surprise. I guess I'm just an idiot. 8 for 17 now. I gotta reel off 4 in a row to equal my egregious total from last year.

10:37pm CST:

• For some strange reason, I have a feeling that Michael Clayton could pull an upset. Apparently not, woohoo. Juno was one of the best films of the year and deserved it. Diablo Cody, however, did disappoint me by not being more volatile. She's just like everyone else! Booooooo. 9 for 18 now.
• I'll just say it. Helen Mirren is freakin' hot. Okay, time for the lock of the night. What a shock. Most deserving award of the night. Day-Lewis is a dynamo. Utterly incredible. 10 for 19 now.

10:40pm CST:

• It is bizarre that these are the first 2 Oscars ever for a Paul Thomas Anderson film. What a crock of shit. One of our best modern day directors and he keeps getting passed over for flavor of the month crap. Yeah, it pisses me off.
• Joel and Ethan Coen winning Best Director was pretty easy and I have no issues with it. 11 for 20 now. Despite my crappy performance, I'm in position to equal my dismal total from last year. Given how the evening has gone, that's not too terrible.
• Time for NCFOM to get its big prize. There we go, 12 for 21. Not a bad recovery, but the sad part is I don't know this experience helps me improve upon next year b/c it's still a crapshoot in so many ways. I can't complain. It's a fantastic film and definitely one of the best of the year.
• 3 hours and 17 minutes, pretty breezy telecast. I am pathetic so I wish it was longer, but there ya go. Pretty mundane overall, nothing crazy happened. I'm sorry, but when a major category goes to a complete underdog like Adrien Brody, it just makes it more fun. I don't have a big problem with any of the major choices, but it's just more fun when there are major surprises, assuming they aren't dumb choices. Jon Stewart did a solid job again and there was plenty of bloated, unnecessary crap, but that's part of what I love. I'm not ashamed to say it.