I guess I should throw some predictions out there. The past two years have not been terribly kind to my ego. Each of the past two years, I've gone 12 for 21 and it usually follows a pattern of: nailing all the major awards (usually with one exception) and getting fucked over by a blockbuster I thought was beloved to sweep the technical awards but in actuality wasn't. I yearn to return to my glory days of 2006 when I went a hearty 15 for 21. Also, if anyone wants to start the Louis Gossett Jr. pool, be my guests. In fact, I insist. Anyway, on with the predictions:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Director: Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Best Actress: Kate Winslet - The Reader
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Original Screenplay: Milk
Best Adapted Screenplay: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Animated Feature: Wall-E
Best Original Score: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Original Song: Slumdog Millionaire - "Jai Ho"
Best Editing: Slumdog Millionaire
Best Cinematography: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Art Direction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Costume Design: The Duchess
Best Makeup: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Sound Mixing: The Dark Knight
Best Sound Editing: The Dark Knight
Best Visual Effects: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Best Foreign Film: The Class
Best Documentary Feature: Man on Wire
So we're looking at 5 wins for Slumdog and 4 of the more technical nature for ol' Ben Button. Benjamin Button, if you fuck me over, there will be blood. *rim shot* I have this feeling that this is an easy Oscars to predict, but by virtue of me saying that, I know I'm gonna get screwed and only get 4 categories right. So let's get on with it and watch Wolverine gay it up!
7:13pm CST:
- I get that they need uber-gay guys to comment on what everyone is wearing, but I really think they should entertain the idea of getting someone who could be classified as "sports bar guy", but you must have him in bro-down mode. Think about it: "Yo Jamie Foxx, bro, what are these duds you're wearing? Right on bro, I love it, I love it. That is a sweet tux, Hugh. Right on bro, *fist pound*, take it easy man. Late."
- It's nice to see Viola Davis reppin' on the carpet sans snot running out of her nose. She cleans up well. Who knew a piece of Kleenex could make such a world of difference?
- I think it's safe to say that Penelope Cruz is the hottest woman on the planet who features such distinct bird-like qualities. Her face has a beak. Just look at it.
- Ok, is anyone else thinking the same thing? Where in the fuck is Louis Gossett, Jr?! If the superstar of Diggstown does not make an appearance, I'm gonna be pissed. I don't know what Oscar commentators are gonna do without the requisite "safe" black guy to make remarks about. It's an old Oscar standby, "Just look at Louis Gossett, Jr in a blah blah blah suit, the epitome of first class". If they don't have that, the whole operation crumbles.
- Alright, an interview with Judd Apatow, Seth Rogen, and Leslie Mann...it's about as Jewish as your television can get.
- I also gotta say, I'm not terribly optimistic about Hugh Jackman as host tonight. I don't know why they don't just stick with Steve Martin or Billy Crystal every year. Steve Martin only needs a couple of months out of the year to make a zany comic farce with either Queen Latifah or some plot involving a lot of children (or both), but other than that, he's available. So is Jon Stewart. Hugh Jackman seems like a nice, affable guy, but he's also Mr. Tony, so you know what that means...lots of sweet singing and dancing. Can't fucking wait.
- Wow, we're about 3 seconds into it and he's already singing. God, I hate being right all the time. It's my cross to bear.
- I guess shit like this is funny to old people and probably rich white people. I'm not even an Oscar critic. I freaking LOVE the Oscars and am not ashamed of it. I'm the ultimate Oscar apologist. People complain that the telecasts are too long, I wish they were longer b/c I love film and if the only thing we can get to celebrate every year is an epic self-congratulatory circle jerk amongst Hollywood's richest and most beautiful, then so be it. Sign me up. All that being said, even I, the harbinger of all things Oscar, thinks this sucks. Ouch, Hugh.
- While this interminable opening prattles on, I want to give a shout-out to the Independent Spirit Awards. If you find the Oscars to be ridiculous and overblown and too much for you, the ISAs may be the perfect antidote for you. It's a lot more laid-back, they're allowed to cuss, and surly bastards like Philip Seymour Hoffman and Charlie Kauffman are always attending so you know there's never a dull moment. For future reference, it's on the Saturday before the Oscars every year on IFC and AMC. Need more evidence that they kick ass? The Wrestler won best picture and director last night. Yeah. Take that.
- I just spotted Philip Seymour Hoffman in the crowd and he's still wearing his beanie. God, I love that man.
- Want a good prop bet? What would you say the over-under is for Oscar montages over the course of the evening? We've already got one in the bag so if the line was 1/2 and you picked the over, you're a genius.
- Alright! Supporting Actress right off the bat? I'm diggin' this. If it were up to me, Viola Davis would win this for completely owning the entire film and only being in it for pretty much one scene. I think she has a shot, but I'm thinking this is Cruz's to lose. She won most of the precursors and I think the Academy wants to give her some love after losing for her work in Volver. As a sentimental favorite, I love Taraji P. Henson, but unfortunately for her, the nomination is the award. Amy Adams seems like she's on the Oscar short list to be nominated every year, so she'll get her due eventually. I'm not liking the lack of film clips. I understand that this method of sucking off each nominee in front of the world is a great ego boost, but I want my clips dammit!
- And there we go, Penelope Cruz is your winner and I am 1 for 1. This kicks ass b/c this was the most unpredictable major category to me and that means I'm off to a roaring start. I don't have a problem with her winning b/c she was excellent in Volver and got overlooked, plus it meant that my prediction was right and who doesn't like to be right?
- Original Screenplay already? Wow, I heard they were really revamping the Oscar broadcast this year, but I didn't expect this much change. It's not bad, I kinda dig it. I think this is Milk's to lose as I think it's a film that Hollywood will want to reward somehow. And there ya go, right again, I'm 2 for 2. I would have gone with the criminally underrated In Bruges or Wall-E.
- I love Hollywood political grandstanding, it's awesomely stupid. Now time for Adapted Screenplay, somebody better fire up that Slumdog train, it's about to start chuggin'! 3 for 3 now as Slumdog takes it down. I probably would have given it to Frost/Nixon, but this is Slumdog's night and it shall slay all in its path. I don't mind, it's a very good film. This whole operation is fucked since the two best films of the year got minimal love. What are these two films you speak of, Jeff? Well, I'll tell you grasshopper. They are none other than The Dark Knight and The Wrestler.
- I love Jack Black, he still knows how to bring it. Speaking of animation, with the exception of Pixar's usual output of genius, the overall landscape has become over-saturated. It's like every fucking weekend, we have some new animal that's gonna talk and fly and learn life lessons. Also, I should mention that Animated Feature is the most guaranteed, surefire, bet your firstborn on it lock of the night with Wall-E. And what do ya know, Joe, we have a winner. 4 for 4 now. I am kicking ass. If Benji Button gets the technical love I think it will, you can all buy me drinks and take me out as my Oscar score will be through the roof. I'll let you make eye contact.
- Most who have read my blogs in the past know this, but I'll go ahead and let everyone know I don't predict the shorts. Predicting the shorts is like betting on an Appalachian State vs. Florida A&M Tuesday night ESPN college football game...it's only for losers and degenerates. Just for grins, gotta love how the Petit Cubes movie won for Best Animated Short. The clip was a guy laying brick (or I guess, cubes). Talk about an action-packed thrill ride! Then the guy who made it accepts the award and manages to speak entire sentences at the exact same decibel level! No higher or lower. He seems like fun, I want to go to Vegas with him.
- Art Direction. Uh Ohhhhh! Looks like my Benji Button technical award prognostication is off to a roaring start! 5 for 5 now. Dammit, why oh why, did I not enter that "Beat Roger Ebert" contest? I've been looking to whoop his ass for a long time now. Anyone know what Art Direction actually is? I didn't think so. For the record, I know it got a bit of a tepid reception, but I thought Ben Button was very good. I felt that the first half was stronger than the second half, but overall, very good. David Fincher always comes through and watching his evolution from kinetic, intense filmmaker to thoughtful, deliberate filmmaker has been fascinating.
- Costume Design. I am owning this show. 6 for 6 as The Duchess takes it down like John Malkovich in Rounders. Little Oscar tip I've learned over the years...if it's Costume Design and there's a period piece involved, even a little seen one like The Duchess, bet the house on it. People are dumb. They see big frilly costumes and they put a check mark next to it, it's that simple. No one ever said Hollywood was smart.
- Best Makeup. The Benji Button technicial award pain train keeps gaining momentum. 7 for 7 now.
- A montage dedicated to romance? Wow.
- At least they showed clips from Forgetting Sarah Marshall. Almost makes it all worth it.
- Ben Stiller is a funny guy, but this Joaquin Phoenix bit was done last night at the Independent Spirit Awards. Nice try, Ben! Is Natalie Portman still 12 years old? Also, the first drink has been poured!
- Cinematography. This is an interesting category as it directly pits Ben Button against Slumdog. Even The Dark Knight could be a sleeper, but if I'm right about Ben Button and it's technical adoration, this will be the tell-tale category, I think. Well there we go as Slumdog takes it. This should be a sign to all that if you didn't believe it before, believe it now b/c Slumdog is going to destroy everything in its path tonight. I'm now 7 for 8.
- I have to take issue with this win too. Maybe I'm beginning to feel some of that Slumdog backlash I've been hearing so much about? I don't know. But it's almost like they were thinking about cinematography, they saw Slumdog, and they were like "Oh, India! It must be great cinematography!" Whereas like every David Fincher film, Ben Button was a dynamic piece of work with phenomenal technical acumen. Bleh. Or maybe I'm just bitter b/c my attempt at perfection was thwarted.
- The Judd Apatow-Pineapple Express short film was just what the doctor ordered. If only the rest of this shit was as funny. Speaking of, James Franco's performance in PE should not be overlooked. Doing good comedy is not easy and he aced it.
- Don't say I didn't warn you. Hugh Jackman = Mr. Tony = way too much singing and dancing.
- Jesus christtttttttttt, when will it endddddddddddd??????
- I just heard them say "motion of the ocean" as one of the lines in the song. Wow.
- I won't lie. I make fun of the montages, but a sick, filthy, disgusting part of me actually derives some enjoyment from them. It's almost like watching an old sports reel on ESPN, reliving classic moments in the medium. It's difficult not to enjoy something like that on at least a minor level.
- And here we go with Supporting Actor. Get ready, Ledger family. I love how they bring out 5 past best supporting actors from years past with icons like Alan Arkin and Christopher Walken...oh, and of course, Cuba Gooding, Jr. The acclaimed star of Boat Trip. It still breaks my heart to think that Heath Ledger is gone and Freddie Prinze, Jr. is still roaming this planet and poisoning celluloid at every turn. As my main man Billy Joel once said, "Only the good die young". The worst part was that he was really hitting his stride, at least this will be a fitting tribute to him.
- I love that Cuba is the one presenting Robert Downey Jr's nomination...he's the "safest" black guy they could find. Good times all around. Although I have yet to see Revolutionary Road, Michael Shannon will always have a special place in my heart for his kickass/disgusting work in Bug.
- And there we have it as Heath Ledger takes it. 8 for 9 now. Is it just me or does everyone look like they're going to cry? This is the saddest damn thing. And don't even get me started on the fact that he should have won for Brokeback Mountain, but we don't speak of that year and the curse/famine it has wreaked upon our once great lands.
- Ok, that was depressing as hell. Time for Man on Wire to win and have that nut Philippe Petit cheer us all up! I liked MOW, but I didn't love it. I'm actually surprised it is as universally loved as it is. Either way, I don't mind it winning Best Doc, assuming it does.
- Good first line from Bill Maher, "Great, everyone's crying and I get to go on!". Reminds me of a classic C-81 show where we were invited to play a show, not realizing it was a memorial service for a dead teenage girl...after everyone watched sad videos and told of their favorite memories, we had to go on stage and play. It was awesome. But, I digress.
- There we go, Man on Wire takes Best Doc. 9 for 10 now. Get up there Philippe!!! This man MUST SPEAK. There he goes. Of course that fool does a fucking magic trick, followed by balancing the Oscar on his face, god bless that man!
- An Action of 2008 montage? But of course, Academy.
- It was actually a pretty good year for action/adventure movies, esp. considering if I can get one good one per year, then I'm happy. But this year, we had Iron Man, Wanted, The Incredible Hulk, The Dark Knight and even the new Indiana Jones, which really wasn't bad, it was just a classic example of a film crumbling in the public eye due to colossal/unreasonable expectations. C'mon folks, be realistic/reasonable!
- Good recovery for Benji Button as it takes Visual Effects, 10 for 11 now. It makes sense, the entire film centered around one remarkable special effect. Even so, while I agree with the decision, it also reflects the fact that the Academy is a loonnggggg way from taking a comic book film seriously.
- Best Sound Editing goes to The Dark Knight, back to kicking ass at 11 for 12 now. This is about as legit as The Dark Knight is going to be as far as Father Oscar is concerned. I think it'll be this year's The Bourne Ultimatum/The Matrix. A film that gets nothing significant, but a host of minor technical awards like the aforementioned Sound Editing award.
- Ok, so let me get this straight. TDK wins Sound Editing, but freaking Slumdog gets Sound Mixing?! Whatever. 11 for 13. And someone tell this dude to get ahold of himself, it's an Academy Award for Sound Mixing that is clearly a case of coattailing on the part of Slumdog as it appears this movie is going to destroy everyone's face tonight. Haha, I love how he spent his whole speech trying not to faint like a 12 year old girl at a Backstreet Boys concert and as a result, the other two guys didn't get to say anything. What an egomaniac. I think I may end up hating Slumdog by the end of the night. Backlash in full effect!
- Best Editing was easy. Another rule of thumb, culled from Jeff's Encyclopedia of Oscar Knowledge and How to Win Your Office Oscar Pool, anytime you have a film like Slumdog that is steamrolling to victory, it will have editing in the bag. Book it. 12 for 14 now. I only got 12 right TOTAL in each of the past two years, so that gives you an idea of how I'm performing this year. Who wants to touch me?
- Lifetime Achievement award for Jerry Lewis. *birds chirping*
- Anyway, moving on...Best Score SHOULD go to Ben Button, but it won't. Which is too bad because it's a great score. It'll surely go to Slumdog because it's Indian-influenced which makes the Academy appear more culturally hip/sensitive, so that white guilt will drive it. I love the Oscars, but boy do I hate the politics. Go with what deserves to win you ass clowns. Wishful thinking, I know. I do like this way of presenting each nomination, one of the few presentations that has been an improvement over past telecasts. Otherwise, I like to stick with the old school formula as far as how the Oscars run.
- Did Alicia Keys put on a plastic face? I'm serious, that thing isn't moving.
- Of course, freaking Slumdog. 13 for 15. At least I knew to expect it.
- I must say that the Oscars is a lot less fun when you don't have a film to really get behind. The two best films weren't even nominated for Best Picture and most of the awards were easy to call (or so I believed and it looks like I was right), so there's no suspense and no one to really root for. I guess I got spoiled by last year when we had two bona fide American masterpieces with No Country For Old Men and There Will Be Blood getting lots of love. Now, it just feels like going through the motions. At least they condensed these three shitty songs into one little medley. Get ready for another Slumdog lovefest, by the way.
- I guess I'm just not impressed by masses of people dancing. It has never done anything for me. My first thought is always, wow you put a lot of effort into something that I don't give a shit about (esp. since ya know, it's all about me). Also, let me say that the fact that the Boss' "The Wrestler" was ineligible for Best Song is a crock of shit. It's a great song and fits the film better than any of these pieces of crap. BTW, what did I tell you? Slumdog again for Jai Hooooooooooooooo. 14 for 16 now. I wonder who is going to win best picture? Seriously, I have no clue.
- Whoa. Ok, NO ONE saw that one coming. It was a two horse race all the way between The Class and Waltz with Bashir for Best Foreign Film and lo and behold, Departures from Japan takes it, very underdog of them. 14 for 17.
- I don't have a problem with this upset b/c Best Foreign Film is one of the few categories where everyone who votes has to have watched all the nominees so at least you feel like you're getting a more honest winner. BTW, that was a sweet acceptance speech. One day when I win my lifetime achievement award for being awesome, I'm gonna say the same thing, "I'm berry berry happy!". The end.
- Ah yes, the classic Dead People Montage. I wish they did these in order of importance or most popular, that'd piss a lot of people off. Roy Scheider died? I had no idear. Oh Ricardo Montalban, we hardly knew ye. Stan Winston died too?! Damn I'm out of the loop. Anthony Minghella dying was a definite tragedy. He still had good stuff in him. And don't get me started on Paul Newman...that right there is fucking depressing. If you haven't, watched Paul Newman's films from the 60s and 70s, that is greatness in action.
- Wow, Best Director is being presented early, that's weird. Anyone wanna guess this one? C'mon, give it a whirl. Man, one day, David Fincher needs to win Best Director. THAT would be a sweet surprise. Fucking shocker, Danny Boyle takes it. 15 for 18.
- I won't lie, I am having a severe case of Slumdog-backlash-itis. But don't let that fool you, it is a very good movie and Danny Boyle, while I wouldn't consider him an elite director, he is ambitious and takes chances, so at least he's interesting. All things considered, I should be proud of the Academy for propelling a film like Slumdog to sweep the awards it has, I mean, it's not exactly the stereotypical Oscar bait. I guess my overall lack of enthusiasm has more to do with what a boring year it was for film and for the fact that The Dark Knight and The Wrestler didn't get their proper due. I think if Mickey Rourke wins and gives a speech that is anything remotely close to what he did at the ISAs, I'll be happy. Even so, if Sean Penn wins, at least there's a good chance he'll say something art-fagulous and pissy...gotta love these temperamental, artistic types!
- Best Actress is an interesting race, but given that we have this new method of propping up Hollywood millionaires for announcing nominees this year, we should see a lot of cry babies. Should be a blast.
- That being said, I don't think I'd be upset with any of the nominees winning. They're all spectacular. Quick sidenote, WOW Sophia Loren! I always thought she was staving off old age pretty well, but I guess she has finally gotten over the hill. She apparently fell asleep at a Darque Tan for 8 weeks and then had a vile of botox injected everywhere. Yikes.
- Kate Winslet takes it, long overdue. She's only one of the best actresses on the planet, it's never too late, Academy! 16 for 19.
- While I'm not crazy about The Reader as a film, Kate Winslet was terrific even if it really was a supporting performance, not a lead. But who gives a shit, Winslet is finally getting her due. Unfortunate the Academy works like this, but it does, so get over it.
- Good representation for the Best Actor clan. Adrien Brody's surprise win for The Pianist is still one of my all-time favorite Oscar moments. I also must point out that Richard Jenkins and Frank Langella getting recognized for their great work is well-deserved. As cheesy as it sounds, this is one of those rare occasions where every nominee deserves it so much, that it's a shame there has to be a winner. That being said, take it down, Mickey! You're my boy blue!
- I had a feeling this would happen. There's a lot of talk that Sean Penn is not beloved around Hollywood, but I don't think that's true. He clearly has the ultimate respect of his peers and deservedly so, he's spectacular. And he was great in Milk. However, I just really wanted Mickey to win this one. How poignant and wonderful would that have been? BTW, 16 for 20 now.
- 17 for 21 is how I finish as Slumdog completes its domination. Closing thoughts forthcoming.
So I finish the evening with my best percentage in ages, but there was an absence of enthusiasm and excitement this time around. I can't place my finger on it other than the fact that my two favorite films of the year weren't up for the big prize and Mickey Rourke losing out to Sean Penn cast a little bit of a pall over the evening for me as ol' Mick was the only guy I was really rooting for in this entire production. I still love this time of year and while it left a lot to be desired as far as the quality of what was being represented, I still derive plenty of enjoyment out of this whole shindig. As far as the new format of the show, I still prefer the old way of doing things, i.e. showing film clips of performances instead of having 5 past winners come out and perform oral sex on each of the current nominees just didn't do much for me. One of my favorite things to do is watch award-worthy films and try to figure out which scene will be the "Oscar clip" scene and this year, I didn't get that type of fulfillment. Finally, I still think they should get a funnier, more dynamic host. Nothing against Hugh Jackman, but while he's not in Ellen Degeneres/Whoopi Goldberg territory, he was also very bland and forgettable. I had no problems with Jon Stewart, keep him coming back.

44 comments:
Is Man on a Wire a sequel to Bird on a Wire?
absolutely
I love that movie. It's the 1980's version of Casablanca.
thats a good point
Looks like 25:1 odds were right on ole Heath. Who knew Wolverine was so talented?
haha, yeah looks like you wont be scoring big off me, and skips is out of a blowjob...it's a sad day for us all
Baby - me rikey your brog, you are hirarious and genius! me rove you rong time!! xoxo
Hey Chi! Glad to see you on here.
i dont even know who anyone is...you all should use your real names...i can tell that big penis mcfucktwat is jason b/c thats a combination of all of jason's favorite words, but everyone else other than tim and chi, i have no idea who you are and im too busy to guess! these blogs dont write themselves you know!
Hey, Joy Luck Club #1 Fan... GOMN.
GOMN is delicious! I like using chopsticks to eat it.
That hurts Jeff. You left out Dong,Peter and Skin Tube as my favorite words. I thought I knew you. :(
Chi, You racka disciprine.
whenever iam at the local vietamese cafe, i personally order a nice bowl of pho ga(with light pho of course) with an accompanying side of chicken sate w/ a charred ginger sauce. after eating the sate, i like to to re-use the sticks as makeshift cutlery for my main course and crack jokes about how iam saving the rain forest by not using thier own pre assembled chopsticks. since they dont speak any english, they dont understand what iam saying but i still have a fun time whenever i dine there.
There were 3 great films last year. There Will Be Blood, No Country for Old Men and Don't Mess with the Zohan! How easily you forget.
Learn english you crazy ching chong Chinese dude.
P.S. Sorry Chi
oh i didnt forget, zohan was this year though...that was the film i was referencing when i said i have no one to root for in this year's oscars esp. since the two best films werent nominated for best picture...i was talking about the dark knight and zohan, helllooooooo
My bad. I knew you had it in you. I am fully expecting Steve Martin to come out for a duet right now.
I love how the President of the Academy's name is Sid Gayness
How could Boyle win for making a movie about terrorists? This is America.
Not to mention he sucks at bouncing like Tigger.
Seriously. Fuckin IRA.
That Nazi woman looks great. Plastic surgery A+++
Wow Sophia Loren looks like the crypt keepers asshole.
It's about damn time that someone won a lifetime achievement award for getting naked in every movie. Great rack.
OK. When did Kate Winslet turn into Bridgette Nielson and when does Sophia Loren transform into Mumra ?
Nobody tells Meryl to "Suck that up"........Nobody
Nice Mumra reference. Well played.
Here's to Mickey Rourke doing a Ram Jam on that pretentious asshole Sean Penn.
You see the ice on his pinky? Everytime i come around your city bling bling.
Mickey Rourke's got a balla pinky ring. Kiss the rings bitch.
Fuck yeah! Congratulations comrade Penn!
Jew.
What's with all those people on the stage? Typical muslims.
Looks like the whole city of Mumbai is up there to accept the Oscar.
Was that Avinash's dad?
Actually, I think it was.
I am so down for Night at the Museum 2. Julia and Julie looks swell too.
I was feeling Imagine That. It looks like Eddie Murphy at his zaniest!
tim, you are on fire tonight...saying sophia loren looked like mumra and that the whole city of mumbai was onstage to accept the award?! freaking awesome. i also liked jason saying that loren looked like the crypt keeper's asshole, good stuff
Did you see the shoutout to PWC?
Were you holding out on the winners Chi?
rol - you missed the old white dudes reppin pwc earlier.. nerdy accountants on the red carpet = awkard!!
Well Im sorry I missed the whole thing. I cant believe the Mickey Rourke thing. This just goes to show you that Hollywood loves gay people and Sean Penn above all else. The two together...Mickey never stood a chance. BTW Jeff Indiana Jones did not fail due to high expectations. It failed due to sassy chipmunks and digital helper monkeys. I fucking HATE George Lucas.
Just remember Skips. Tolkien only created hobbits. Lucas created all that shit PLUS ewoks, Jar Jar, Short Round, and all of the cutesy creatures in that bar scene. Suck it Trebek.
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